TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — A US cybersecurity firm warns that if war breaks out in the Taiwan Strait, China may block repair ships from fixing damaged undersea cables.
On Thursday, Insikt Group, the intelligence research unit of Recorded Future, released a nearly 30-page report titled Submarine Cables Face Increasing Threats Amid Geopolitical Tensions and Limited Repair Capacity, per CNA. It said China’s coast guard has attempted to block Philippine resupply efforts at Second Thomas Shoal, Scarborough Shoal, and Sabina Shoal.
In addition to harassing Philippine vessels, Chinese state forces have long interfered with ships from other claimant countries and external powers like the US. Insikt Group said, "These incidents suggest that Beijing could take similar action to block repair vessels from accessing damaged submarine infrastructure in the event of a potential escalation of tension or outbreak of hostilities around Taiwan."
From 2024 to the present, there have been four incidents in the Baltic Sea region involving damage to eight undersea cables. Around Taiwan, five similar cases have occurred.
While most cable disruptions are likely accidental, recent events in the Baltic and near Taiwan show submarine systems remain vulnerable to threats like dragging anchors. Countries can exploit this low-tech method to strike critical infrastructure while maintaining plausible deniability.
China’s expanding deep-sea capabilities are also enhancing its ability to target undersea infrastructure. The report pointed out that a Chinese university, company, and several individuals filed patents for cable-cutting devices in 2020, 2013, and 2009.
Meanwhile, Chinese companies are taking on larger roles in deploying, owning, and operating undersea cables. This raises espionage risks for the countries and firms that rely on these systems.
Insikt Group said satellite and microwave links can only serve as temporary alternatives. It recommended stronger public-private cooperation to enhance real-time monitoring and conduct stress tests to improve resilience and guard against “a low-probability but high-impact event."
Recorded Future was founded in 2009, with headquarters in Somerville, Massachusetts. The company was acquired by MasterCard in 2024.
