TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — The Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation released a survey on Monday regarding a recall vote for 24 KMT legislators and the suspended Hsinchu mayor set for July 26.

The survey found that if the recall vote were to take place at the end of last week, 42% of the public would support the recall, and 48% would oppose, with 10% having no opinion, per TPOF.

If the survey was limited to constituents of legislators and the mayor facing recall, support drops to 40%, while opposition reached 51%.

However, voting turnout varies dramatically amongst different parties, with 86% of DPP supporters saying they will turn out for the recall vote and 13% not voting. As for the KMT, 72% are expected to vote, with 26% abstaining.

For Taiwan People's Party supporters, 61% are expected to vote, and 36% say they will not vote. And for those that do not affiliate with a party, 54% are expected to vote, and 39% said they would not vote.

Another important finding was the likelihood of voters to turn out in different cities and counties. Taoyuan had the highest projected voter turnout of 77%, followed by New Taipei at 74%, Taipei at 71%, the other five counties and cities at 68%, with Taichung finishing last at 50%.

While mainstream public opinion does not support a recall, high voter turnout may ultimately have a significant impact on the recall.

For example, among the 42% of voters who support the recall, the turnout rate is expected to be 91%, which far outpaces the 48% who oppose the recall, who only have an expected 63% turnout. This is an issue for the KMT's anti-recall camp, as there is a chance of a result where the "minority may overwhelm the majority."

You Ying-lung (游盈隆), TPOF chair, however, says it is unrealistic for the party supporting recalls to achieve a 90% voter turnout rate. He said this level of turnout does not conform to general voting conventions regarding voter turnout.

More realistic expectations, according to You, would be an overall voter turnout of at least 55% which may enable the KMT legislators and Hsinchu mayor to survive the recall challenge.

Focus Survey Research (山水民意研究公司) was entrusted with carrying out the telephone interviews from July 7 to 9. Subjects were voting-aged adults (20 years and above), with 70% of respondents contacted on landline numbers and 30% by mobile phone.

The sample size was 1,083 people with a sampling error of 2.98%, leading to a 95% confidence level. The survey was weighted by region, gender, age, and education level based on the latest demographic data from the Ministry of the Interior.