TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Officials from the Movement, an internal faction within the DPP, are urging party members to temper expectations ahead of the July 26 recall elections, warning of consequences in the event of failure.
The cautious outlook contrasts with optimism within the DPP, per Up Media. Internal projections before President Lai Ching-te (賴清德) began delivering a recent series of speeches suggested the party could successfully recall up to 15 KMT lawmakers.
However, Movement officials cited mounting controversies, including Lai’s remarks during his speeches and the death of Pong Cheng-sheng’s (彭振聲) wife, who fell to her death, while her husband faces legal proceedings in the Pacific City corruption case, as potential factors energizing opposition supporters. While they acknowledged that Lai has since adjusted the tone and content of his speeches, they advised caution, particularly in handling the sensitive fallout from Pong’s case.
The faction pointed to past recall and general election outcomes to support its more conservative forecast, cautioning that misplaced confidence could leave the party vulnerable. Sources told Up Media that failure to secure sufficient recall victories could deal a large blow to the DPP’s political standing.
Rather than aiming for the maximum projected gains, Up Media suggested that flipping eight seats would constitute a major success, while six seats would be the minimum required to shift the legislative majority.
On the other side of the aisle, optimism appears to be rising within the KMT. Former KMT Deputy Secretary-General Chang Ya-ping (張雅屏) told the Liberty Times that the number of KMT legislators considered at risk of recall has decreased to just four: Tu Chuan-chi (涂權吉), Huang Chien-pin (黃建賓), Yeh Yuan-chih (葉元之), and Cheng Cheng-chien (鄭正鈐).
Chang attributed this shift in momentum to President Lai’s speeches and the recent detention of several KMT local officials, which he said may galvanize turnout among KMT supporters. He added that aside from Cheng, who faces bribery allegations, the remaining legislators are vulnerable due to voter demographics rather than scandals.
In response to suggestions that KMT Legislators Liao Wei-hsiang (廖偉翔), Lee Yen-hsiu (李彥秀), and Fu Kun-chi (傅崐萁) are also at risk, Chang acknowledged their controversial reputations but noted that their strong local support makes a successful recall unlikely. He argued that recent political developments, including President Lai’s messaging, have helped consolidate KMT support.
DPP Secretary-General Lin Yu-chang (林右昌) dismissed Chang’s remarks, claiming the KMT is banking on voters forgetting what he described as “legislation damaging to the country”, per Tai Sounds. Lin also questioned the true depth of Fu’s support, suggesting that some attendees at his rallies may still vote against him.
Meanwhile, KMT lawmaker Wang Hung-wei (王鴻薇) offered a more cautious take from within her own party, saying she still considers herself at risk of being recalled, per UDN. Although she noted that public opposition to her recall is growing, she warned that turnout among her supporters remains uncertain.
Wang also raised concerns that the detention of local KMT officials could hamper the party’s ability to mobilize voters for the recall vote.
