TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — National Central University reported on Friday that its consumer confidence index (CCI) stood at 63.7 in June, affected by uncertainty over tariffs and a surging Taiwan dollar.
The figure marks a 1.23 decrease from May last year, with six sub-indices declining, reflecting broad caution among households and investors, per CNA.
Professor Wu Ta-jen (吳大任) from the university’s economics department explained that while AI-fueled exports helped certain industries earlier this year, many traditional sectors and small-to-medium enterprises still face thin profit margins. The Taiwan dollar’s rapid appreciation has made some manufacturers hesitant to accept orders, fearing further losses if the currency strengthens.
“The more you sell, the more you lose,” Wu warned, adding that once a 90-day “reciprocal” tariff exemption expires in July, higher tariff rates could worsen the situation.
Among the six CCI sub-indices, the category measuring investment timing for stocks over the next six months posted the steepest drop, down 2.86 points to 23.96, its lowest in nearly two and a half years. Indicators covering prices, household finances, economic conditions, and job opportunities also hit new lows not seen in more than a year.
Wu noted that Taiwan’s heavy export reliance, with shipments accounting for 60–70% of GDP compared to South Korea’s 40–50%, means the country is especially vulnerable to currency swings. A continued Taiwan dollar rally, coupled with tariff pressure, could spread economic weakness from exports into the labor market in the second half of the year.
Housing sentiment also showed strain. The durable goods sub-index dipped 0.75 points to 96.88, its lowest in nearly five years, while a separate index on housing purchase timing dropped to 94.62, another five-year low.
NCU also released its Taiwan Energy Security Index for Q1, which came in at 58, up one point from the previous quarter but slightly down year on year. Researcher Liang Chi-yuan (梁啟源) warned that delays in renewable projects, combined with heavy reliance on coal and oil, could leave the power grid vulnerable by 2027.
