TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Taiwan’s Central Election Commission will review recall initiatives for legislators on Friday, with successful cases proceeding to a public vote between July 10 and Aug. 19.
The Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation announced the results of a survey on Monday indicating that more than 50% of respondents oppose the mass recall of KMT legislators led by DPP caucus whip Ker Chien-ming (柯建銘).
Earlier this year, Ker proposed recalling 41 legislators (39 KMT and two independents). According to CNA, civic groups have submitted 31 initiatives, and the CEC is reviewing 26 cases that passed the second-stage petition threshold.
On Ker’s recall effort, 20.5% of respondents strongly agreed with the recall, 15.4% somewhat agreed, 19.2% did not quite agree, 38.5% did not agree at all, 4.6% had no opinion and 1.8% did not know or refused to answer—meaning 36% support a general recall, while 58% oppose it. Pollster You Ying-lung (游盈隆) noted support fell by 0.8% and opposition rose by 3.5% compared with a similar poll last month.
When asked whether they would vote if the recall reached the third stage, 45.6% said they would definitely vote, 17.2% said they might vote, 13% said they probably would not, and 21.2% said they definitely would not; 1.6% had no opinion and 1.4% refused to answer. In other words, 46% would certainly participate, while 38% probably or definitely would not.
Compared with last month, there has been no major change in voters’ inclination to participate in a third-stage recall vote, though there are signs of a gradual warming trend: turnout among DPP supporters fell by 3%, KMT supporters’ turnout rose by 11%, Taiwan People’s Party supporters’ turnout dropped by 7%, and non-voter turnout increased by 8%, indicating waning enthusiasm among TPP backers.
Among the 58% opposing a general recall, an estimated 52% say they would vote—about 29.82% of the total electorate—while among the 36% supporting the recall, an 86% turnout rate translates to about 30.92% of voters. This means recall proponents would outnumber opponents by roughly 1.1 percentage points. Factoring in turnout disparities—54% among anti-recall supporters and 86% among pro-recall supporters—suggests the recall side could prevail by about 7.5%.
The poll was conducted June 9–11 among 1,085 adults aged 20 and above nationwide, using a 70% landline and 30% mobile sampling mix. The margin of error is ±2.98 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.
