TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Taiwan’s economic growth is projected to reach 2.9% this year, falling short of the 3% mark as the initial boost from pre-tariff export orders wanes, Taiwan Research Institute reported Friday.
TRI said economic momentum this year would be front-loaded, per CNA. A wave of pre-tariff orders boosted exports early on, while strong global demand for AI and advanced tech products fueled a surge in private investment.
Taiwan’s exports posted solid gains, with real export growth in goods and services projected at 9.82%. Capital equipment imports hit record highs as firms expanded capacity for AI and high-performance computing applications. Real private investment is forecast to rise 4.54% this year.
However, TRI President Wu Tsai-i (吳再益) warned the outlook turns murkier in the second half of the year. “The real pain comes later,” he said, citing completed US tariff negotiations and advance orders winding down as key headwinds.
Wu added that Taiwan faces growing external risks, including US-China tensions, currency fluctuations, and the policy directions of major central banks. These will heavily influence Taiwan’s growth trajectory, he said.
The institute also flagged weakening consumer sentiment amid rising global trade uncertainty and volatile markets. Real private consumption is projected to grow just 1.5% this year.
TRI Founder Liu Tai-ying (劉泰英) echoed those concerns, linking the current instability to political and financial shocks. He said US President Donald Trump’s erratic policies have amplified market turbulence, while the Taiwan dollar’s recent surge is squeezing exporters.
To counter this, Liu called for tapping Taiwan’s large pool of excess savings. He also urged the government to extend high-speed rail to the east, saying infrastructure projects could stimulate demand and buffer the economy against global shocks.
