TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — The Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting, and Statistics on Wednesday trimmed its growth forecast for this year to 3.1% as tariff uncertainty looms over investment and consumer sentiment.
The figure represents a 0.04-point drop from the department’s estimate in February. DGBAS Statistics Department head Tsai Yu-tai (蔡鈺泰) said continued strength in AI and high-performance computing demand helped lift export figures, aided by a 90-day grace period before new tariffs take effect, per CNA.
Exports are forecast to reach NT$8.24 trillion (US$275.7 billion) in the first half of this year, up 22.6% year-on-year. However, second-half exports could fall to US$242 billion, a 3.2% decline. Full-year exports are still expected to hit a record US$517.7 billion, up nearly 9%.
Tsai said tariffs are still being negotiated. He added that uncertainties around Trump’s policies remain high, and the DGBAS may revise its assessment if clearer signals emerge.
Taiwan’s real exports are now projected to grow 11.4% this year, while private consumption is forecast to grow just 1.64%, down 0.48 points. Private investment is expected to rise 5.77%, also slightly revised down.
Volatile financial markets and tariff fears are dampening corporate investment and household confidence, Tsai explained. The recent appreciation of the Taiwan dollar could also hurt exporters by squeezing profits, indirectly weighing on income and spending.
According to the DGBAS, inflation is expected to ease this year, with the consumer price index forecast at 1.88%, falling below 2% for the first time in four years. Tsai added that while US tariffs may raise some price risks, they are more likely to curb global demand, pushing oil and commodity prices lower.
