TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — China has strengthened its ability to rapidly attack Taiwan, according to US and Taiwanese officials and military analysts.
The Chinese air force has “expanded its combat radius” with new fighter jets such as the J-10, J-16, and J-20, which can reach Taiwan from bases deep inside China without the need to refuel, a Taiwanese defense official told the Financial Times.
Chinese military aircraft now enter Taiwan’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ) more than 245 times a month, compared to fewer than 10 times per month five years ago, according to Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense. Aircraft also cross the Taiwan Strait median line roughly 120 times a month.
“That alone is a clear demonstration of the escalation and the sustained pressure in the air domain that is being conducted against Taiwan,” a US defense official said.
In the naval domain, the US official said the Chinese navy and coast guard maintain a near-constant presence of about a dozen ships near Taiwan. With access to nearby ports, Chinese ships could “move into a blockade posture… in a matter of hours,” they said.
The Taiwanese defense official added that the forward deployment of vessels allows for faster coordination of air strikes. “With these naval forward deployments, they have shortened both the distance and the time [needed]” to launch attacks on Taiwan, he said.
China’s ground forces have also undergone key changes. Chinese leader Xi Jinping reorganized large army units into smaller ones, including six amphibious combined arms brigades along the southeastern coast, the FT reported.
“This reflects the PLA’s renewed emphasis on Taiwan and lays the foundation for actual warfighting capabilities,” said Joshua Arostegui, a US Army War College expert on the Chinese military.
A senior Taiwanese military official said these amphibious units now operate more independently, supported by upgraded transport equipment, reconnaissance systems, and weapons. Among their capabilities is the PCH-191 multiple rocket launcher, with a 300-kilometer range sufficient to strike targets in Taiwan. The system can be reloaded quickly and is harder to detect due to its truck-mounted platform.
“Those kinds of capabilities could be used without a lot of preparation,” said Dennis Blasko, a Chinese military analyst. “With their help, amphibious or army aviation units could launch from much more of a standing start. It is something that’s very difficult to counter.”
Despite this progress, the US defense official said China still struggles with military leadership and real-time decision-making. “This is an enormously complex kind of operation… and they just have not demonstrated the ability to adapt to modern warfare,” the official said.