TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — A recent survey showed that 51% of Taiwanese support increasing the defense budget, the highest percentage in the poll's history.
The Institute for National Defense and Security Research's poll released April 29 is titled “Trump’s Return: Changes and Challenges in Taiwanese Public Opinion on National Defense and Foreign Policy.” Lee Kuan-chen (李冠成), an assistant researcher at the institute, said the perception of China's threat to Taiwan continues to be the top concern, per UDN.
Lee said the survey found 33% of respondents believe that “China’s threat to Taiwan” is the most serious threat to national security in the next five years, significantly higher than concerns over the ”declining birthrate crisis” (27%) and "economic stagnation" (18%). Lee said those aged 18-29 have the highest perception of China's threat, reaching 36%, indicating that Beijing's influence operations targeting Taiwanese youth have not yet undermined their security awareness.
Lee observed that most people do not believe a war in the Taiwan Strait is imminent. Of those polled, 65% said a PLA attack on Taiwan within five years is unlikely.
Lee said the combined percentages for “somewhat unlikely” and “very unlikely” significantly exceed those who said it is “likely” or “very likely.” He pointed out that despite China’s ongoing military intimidation, public expectations of a short-term invasion “remain calm and rational.”
As for Taiwan-US relations under a second Trump administration, 36% of respondents said ties would worsen, a 12% increase since January. Meanwhile, 39% believe relations will remain unchanged.
Lee said that while the US Congress has consistently sent friendly signals to Taiwan, uncertainty over Trump’s future policies has made some respondents more cautious in their outlook.
On defense issues, 59% of respondents support continued purchases of US military equipment to strengthen defense. Support for increasing the defense budget rose to 51%, up 4% from January, “surpassing the majority threshold for the first time.”
Lee believes that despite some reservations about US-Taiwan relations, support for bilateral military cooperation remains strong. Notably, those supporting a “significant increase” in the defense budget rose from 38% in January to 44% in March.
However, Lee noted that public confidence in Taiwan’s military has declined. Those saying they have “strong confidence” dropped from 20% in September to 14% in March, while those expressing “no confidence” rose from 25% to 30%. Lee suggests that recent spy scandals involving military insiders may have eroded public trust in the military’s internal security.
The INDSR poll was conducted via telephone with randomly selected Taiwanese aged 18 and over. The Election Study Center at National Chengchi University conducted the poll between March 4-9, with 920 landline and 365 mobile phone interviews completed, totaling 1,285 valid responses.
The results have a 95% confidence level and a maximum sampling error of ±2.73%.
