TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Chinese media has invoked the “Beiping model” as a way for Beijing to take over Taiwan without resorting to military force.
Chinese Communist Party members have referred to the model to detail military drills for a potential blockade of Taiwan, The Economist reported. Inspired during the Chinese Civil War by the Communist Party's seizure of Beijing (then called Beiping), the model presents a strategy to gain control of Taiwan without bloodshed.
In 1949, the Nationalist forces in China surrendered Beijing to the Communist forces after a month-long siege. The CCP deployed tactics including eroding public confidence, building a network of collaborators, applying pressure, and eventually, negotiating surrender.
In the context of Taiwan, China must convince the Taiwanese that resistance is futile, the report said. The authors said China has engaged in cognitive warfare, manipulating information to undermine public confidence in Taiwan’s government and escalate tensions in society.
For example, the report noted that Taiwan has seen a significant rise in Chinese espionage cases, particularly targeting government and military personnel. In January, the National Security Bureau’s report said the number of individuals prosecuted for Chinese espionage had increased threefold from 16 in 2021 to 64 in 2024.
Moreover, the report emphasized Taiwan’s domestic political challenges under a divided government. Last year, the opposition parties attempted to expand the legislature's powers over the president, which the ruling party said was unconstitutional.
In January, opposition lawmakers also introduced amendments to the Constitutional Court and blocked the president’s judicial appointments. The Judicial Reform Foundation called the situation "a ticking time bomb" for Taiwan's democracy, given that disagreements could leave the courts immobilized.
In addition, the KMT and TPP made sweeping cuts to the 2025 government budget. The DPP said the NT$207.5 billion (US$6.34 billion) cut harms Taiwan’s security and makes allies think Taiwan is not serious about its defense.
However, the opposition has blamed the DPP for needlessly antagonizing China. For example, the tourism association chair of Hualien voiced, “We ordinary people just want to make money and live and eat well. We don’t want to make everything a political calculation.”
Nevertheless, the report pointed to recent polling that could signify increasing pessimism in Taiwan’s society. Academia Sinica researcher Wu Jieh-min (吳介民) said that over 80% of Taiwanese want to retain the “status quo,” but only about 20% believe it is possible in the long term. Wu also said that only around 4% of Taiwanese support unification, but when questioned on what outcome they expect rather than support, 30% said Taiwan will be unified by China, which is 8% more than in 2020.
The report also noted that since Lai was elected one year ago, his approval rating has dropped to 46% from 58%. It also cited a Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation poll saying 60% of Taiwanese think the US is not trustworthy with Donald Trump’s return.
According to the authors, “The DPP worries that if it prepares too strenuously for war or disruptions to trade, it will frighten voters.” The government has taken steps to strengthen infrastructure, but it has not put together realistic exercises to prepare citizens for a potential crisis.
