TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Public confidence in the US as a reliable security partner has fallen sharply in Taiwan and South Korea following Donald Trump’s return to the White House, according to a survey published Friday.
The Brookings Institution poll, conducted from February to April, found 37.5% of Taiwanese respondents believe the US would “likely” or “very likely” intervene militarily if China attacked Taiwan. This is down from 44.5% in July 2024 and has “never been direr,” per the report’s authors.
The decline comes amid heightened debate in Taipei over the future of US-Taiwan relations. This includes Trump’s critical rhetoric on Taiwan’s defense spending and trade surplus, plus punitive tariffs.
When asked whether the US was a “trustworthy” or “very trustworthy” ally, just 23.1% of Taiwanese answered that it is. This is down from 33.6% last year.
“Multiple political science research papers suggest that Taiwanese are significantly more willing to participate in the island’s defense in a military conflict with China if they believe the United States will participate as well,” the authors commented. They added that confidence in US trustworthiness has dipped since the Ukraine war started in 2022.
The survey also revealed deep partisan divides. About half of DPP supporters view the US as a “trustworthy” or “very trustworthy” partner compared to just 3% of KMT supporters, 10% of TPP supporters, and 14% of independents. Even among DPP supporters confidence has dipped 14% over the past eight months.
Meanwhile, the proportion of Taiwanese who view the US positively or very positively went down 20.8% compared with last year. The figure currently stands at 37.5%.
The survey was based on 2,000 participants from Taiwan and South Korea, with the authors stating: “Our findings paint a bleak picture of America’s future relations with South Korea and Taiwan.
“Across almost all measures, the United States is seen as a less reliable partner, Taiwan and South Korea both feel less confident that the United States will assist them in the event of a conflict with their respective authoritarian neighbor, and both see Trump as bad for democracy around the world.”
Respondents in both countries felt they were less safe with Trump as president. Furthermore, they believe democracy around the world is weaker as a result of his leadership.
