The latest G7 declaration has sent ripples through the geopolitical landscape, marking a significant shift in the bloc’s stance on Taiwan and China.
By omitting the traditional reference to the "One China" policy, the G7 has not only signaled a harder line against Beijing but has also strengthened Taiwan’s international strategic positioning. This comes at a time when tensions in the Taiwan Strait remain high, with an increasing presence of Chinese vessels near the country and a more aggressive posture from the PLA.
This shift in language is no small diplomatic maneuver. The "One China" policy has been for years the foundation of diplomatic engagement between the West and China, ensuring that ties with Taipei remain unofficial and that Beijing’s claim over Taiwan is acknowledged but not recognized.
However, by dropping this reassurance, the G7 has, in a certain sense, implicitly challenged China’s claim over Taiwan, reinforcing the nation’s growing importance in strategic calculations. The move echoes the recent US-Japan joint statement, which condemned China’s "coercion" against Taiwan, a strong sentiment that has been welcomed in Taipei.
Adding to the complexity, the G7's omission aligns with a broader trend of countries re-evaluating their stance on Taiwan in light of China’s military aggression. Beijing’s use of gray zone tactics—such as deploying maritime militias, conducting large-scale military drills near Taiwan, and increasing economic coercion—has raised concerns about regional stability. The latest reports of China’s development of specialized amphibious landing barges designed for rapid troop and vehicle deployment suggest that Taiwan must prepare for multiple potential invasion scenarios.
Against this backdrop, President Lai Ching-te’s (賴清德) administration faces an increasingly precarious security environment. Lai, a staunch advocate of Taiwan’s sovereignty, will likely find encouragement in the G7’s latest statements. However, he also faces the delicate task of maintaining Taiwan’s diplomatic and military resilience while avoiding direct escalation with Beijing. Taiwan’s growing partnerships with countries like Japan, Australia, and certain European nations, especially the Baltics, will be critical in navigating this turbulent period.
Complicating matters further, the return of Donald Trump to the White House has introduced an additional layer of unpredictability. Trump’s foreign policy toward China has historically oscillated between economic confrontation and strategic ambiguity, leaving many to wonder how his administration will handle Taiwan’s security.
While his first term saw a significant increase in arms sales to Taipei and high-level diplomatic exchanges, in his second term, his unpredictability for Taiwan feels like the lightning bolt that recently struck Taipei 101. Not to mention the recent TSMC investment announcement and his comments about possible tariffs on Taiwan’s chips.
As the situation unfolds, the G7’s decision to recalibrate its language on Taiwan may be a turning point. If this shift becomes a trend, it could encourage other nations to adopt a firmer stance against Chinese aggression, reinforcing Taiwan’s de facto independence. However, it also risks provoking a stronger response from Beijing, which has repeatedly stated that unification with Taiwan is a "historical inevitability" by force if necessary.
With rising geopolitical tensions, Taiwan remains at the epicenter of a broader contest for influence in the Indo-Pacific. The G7’s declaration, the growing militarization of the Taiwan Strait, and the uncertain trajectory of US foreign policy under Trump’s renewed leadership all contribute to an increasingly volatile regional landscape. Whether this shift signals a long-term strategic realignment or a temporary rhetorical adjustment remains to be seen, but one thing is definitely certain: Taiwan’s fate is more intertwined than ever with the evolving balance of power in the world.
