TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — A US-based consultant has created a map highlighting an increase in incursions by Chinese military aircraft into Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in the first two months of 2025.
On Monday, Ian Ellis, founder of IEJ Media, posted an infographic on X showing that incursions by People’s Liberation Army aircraft into Taiwan’s ADIZ had quadrupled to 610 in the first two months of 2025 compared to 154 during the same period in 2024. The number of aircraft detected in the ADIZ increased by 456, or 296%.
The number of Chinese military aircraft detected around Taiwan during this period rose 39% to 820, while PLA Navy ship sightings climbed 40% to 419, up from 299 in early 2024.
In February, 480 PLA sorties were detected around Taiwan, an 84% increase from February 2024. Among these, 362 entered Taiwan's ADIZ.
During the same month, joint air-sea combat readiness patrols quintupled, while PLA Navy ship detections rose by 42%. Other notable PLA activities in February included:
- Unannounced live-fire zone established off the coast of Kaohsiung
- Chinese vessel suspected of cutting the Taiwan-Penghu No. 3 undersea cable
- Multiple Chinese coast guard ships entered restricted waters near Kinmen
On Feb. 25, former US Office of Naval Intelligence Commander Rear Admiral Mike Studeman told Ellis the PLA has developed a "very formidable capability" and is preparing for potential military action.
Studeman warned that PLA forces could be ordered to seize one of Taiwan's outer islands or stage a blockade within 48 hours. He described the PLA as being on a "war footing," saying their mindset is akin to behaving as if "every day is the Super Bowl."
He noted that PLA air and naval forces are constantly training, adding that the scale of Chinese military assets—including weapons, munitions, and warships—currently favors Beijing over Washington.
Despite China’s growing military presence, Studeman said a full-scale invasion of Taiwan remains difficult due to challenging terrain and the complex maritime landscape, which the US and allied forces could exploit.
However, he cautioned that Beijing may not be deterred by the long-term economic consequences of an invasion. Instead, China appears to be preparing for a strike to bring the war to a rapid conclusion while taking steps to mitigate potential economic fallout.
