TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — During an official visit to Guatemala, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is expected to discuss stabilizing diplomatic relations with Taiwan.

Rubio is scheduled to visit Guatemala Feb. 4-5 as part of a five-nation tour of Central America, per CNA. While the main focus is combating drug trafficking and illegal immigration, Rubio is expected to discuss Guatemala’s diplomatic relationship with Taiwan and its significance for Central America and the US.

According to Guatemalan media reports, the US has repeatedly expressed appreciation for President Bernardo Arevalo’s administration, acknowledging its awareness of China’s threats and its commitment to maintaining diplomatic ties with Taiwan. Guatemala is Taiwan’s only remaining Spanish-speaking diplomatic ally in Central America. 

As other countries in the region, such as Nicaragua and Honduras, have strengthened ties with China while souring relations with the US, the trilateral relationship between the US, Taiwan, and Guatemala has become increasingly important in the geopolitical landscape.

During his tenure as a US senator, Rubio was a vocal supporter of Taiwan. He introduced the Taiwan Relations Reinforcement Act, which called on the US government to strengthen its Taiwan policy and enhance Taiwan’s defense capabilities. 

On Feb. 29, 2024, Rubio and six other US senators sent a joint letter to Arevalo, stressing the importance of Guatemala’s diplomatic relations with Taiwan and urging him to continue support for Taiwan.

Prensa Libre also reported that the core issue of Rubio’s visit was curbing illegal immigration. As Guatemala is both a major source country and a transit hub for migrants, the US is expected to demand stricter border controls and crackdowns on human smuggling networks to curb immigration from Guatemala and the flow of migrants from other countries passing through en route to the United States. 

Talks may also include discussions on whether to reinstate a “safe third country” agreement, ensuring Guatemala serves as a security buffer for the US southern border.

Guatemalan media reports indicate that the US agenda will include discussions on strengthening Guatemala's control over ports, airports, and borders to prevent drug smuggling, particularly fentanyl, which has posed a threat to the US in recent years. Rubio is also expected to pressure the Guatemalan government to keep its distance from China's influence in the drug trade.

Analysts suggest that given Washington’s firm stance on national interests, Guatemala City has limited negotiating leverage. However, it may leverage cooperation on combating illegal immigration and drug trafficking as bargaining chips to negotiate for greater trade opportunities or increased US investment.

In 2023, US investment in Guatemala amounted to only US$180 million (NT$5.93 billion), accounting for 11% of Guatemala’s total foreign investment, making the US far from Guatemala’s top investor. Whether the US will continue providing economic aid to Guatemala remains a key concern for the government.

Guatemalan media describe Central American nations as viewing Rubio’s visit with both anticipation and apprehension. As the first Latino US secretary of state and a former senator from Florida, Rubio is well-versed in Latin American affairs and regional needs. 

Rubio also understands US adversaries in the region, such as Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Colombia, the latter of which has been at the center of diplomatic tensions. However, he is expected to enforce Trump's policies on immigration, drug trafficking, and countering the threat posed by China.