TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Nearly three-quarters of UN member states support China’s view that Taiwan is part of its territory, and more countries are likely to support this position in the future, according to a report published in early January.
The report, published by Australia’s Lowy Institute, compiled data on all 193 UN member countries' positions on Taiwan and China. It found that 119 countries either “endorse the one-China principle and affirm China’s sovereignty over Taiwan,” or support China’s efforts to achieve unification with Taiwan.
This is compared to the 40 countries that support the Taiwan status quo. Of the remaining countries, 11 maintain formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan, and 23 have not expressed a clear position on the issue.
Results of a survey published in February last year showed around 33% of Taiwanese preferred to maintain the status quo with China indefinitely. Around 6% preferred to maintain the status quo while moving toward unification with China.
Report author Benjamin Herscovitch wrote the data shows there is no international consensus on Taiwan. However, he said it also shows the “PRC may soon have the support of a clear majority of countries to take control of Taiwan, with or without force.”
“This dataset paints a bleak picture for Taipei and those capitals in favor of preserving the cross-Strait status quo of a de facto independent Taiwan,” Herscovitch wrote. He wrote that the data show widespread support for Beijing’s position and preferred language on the issue.
Herscovitch noted that the data cannot account for “diverse elements of every country’s position on Taiwan.” He also stopped short of predicting whether or not the data predicts an increased chance of a conflict in the Taiwan Strait.
“The PRC might be less tempted to use force if Beijing believes its control over Taiwan could become an international fait accompli via diplomatic means,” Herscovitch wrote. “Equally, however, the PRC’s successful diplomatic strategy could be a prelude to war.”
Herscovitch noted the 40 countries that back the Taiwan status quo represent more than 50% of global GDP and military spending. “Although not numerically the largest category, the status quo-ists are arguably still the most powerful global grouping.”
However, he predicted more countries would back more aspects of China’s position on Taiwan in the future. “Regardless of Beijing’s intentions, the growing global embrace of the one-China principle and other aspects of the PRC position on Taiwan is likely to influence the international politics of cross-Strait security.”
