TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — The Council on Foreign Relations deemed a Taiwan Strait conflict moderately likely in a report published this month.
CFR’s Center for Preventive Action designated a Taiwan Strait conflict as a “high impact” Tier I contingency in its annual Preventive Priorities Survey. Escalating Chinese military and economic coercion toward Taiwan could “precipitate a severe cross-strait crisis involving the United States and other countries in the region,” it said.
The report also said Chinese belligerence in the South China Sea could lead to a contingency between China and the US and its allies, including the Philippines. The CFR recommended the incoming Trump administration recognize the emerging global risks and draft policies to "lessen the dangers ahead.”
The CFR reiterated that the Preventative Priorities Survey is focused on assessing political and military contingencies and is not intended to evaluate the risks posed by global warming, demographic changes, or technological developments.