TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Experts recently shared conflicting analyses on the effects of China’s near-daily incursions into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone, or ADIZ.
Ben Lewis, a Washington, D.C.-based defense analyst, said Taiwan has “strong control” of its responses to China’s incursions, according to a The Guardian report. “It takes a lot of professionalism and capability to respond to a major militia exercise surrounding all sides of your island when the goal of the exercise is to demonstrate how much more capacity China has than Taiwan,” Lewis was quoted as saying.
Beijing typically carries out incursions after perceived provocations, including any diplomatic interaction by Taiwan with the US. Between Jan. 13 and Dec. 17, there were 3,020 incursions, according to PLATracker, a compilation of data co-collected by Lewis.
Beijing has also launched military drills around Taiwan such as Joint Sword 2024 A and B in May and October, respectively. These exercises “really demonstrated the PLA’s ability to surge forces, get people up and moving, and to seize the operating area,” Lewis said.
Amid the escalating gray-zone tactics, Taiwan changed its ADIZ report format last year, excluding information on the type of Chinese military aircraft or their flight routes. This is a “missed opportunity” to gain international attention on this issue, Lewis said.
Former Taiwan Chief of the General Staff Lee Hsi-min (李喜明) said Chinese intimidation has been successful in deterring Taiwan from declaring independence. He identified four types of tactics China used to force Taiwan to surrender: Intimidatory (ADIZ incursions), coercive (blockade), punitive (missile strikes), and conquest (invasion).
However, Lee said that Beijing's gray zone tactics toward Taiwan were ultimately “meaningless” until it had full-scale invasion capabilities. “The overarching strategy is to make you capitulate,” he said. "If Taiwan does not capitulate when they conduct this anaconda approach then what could China do?”