TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — US President-elect Donald Trump’s nomination of "China-hawks" such as Marco Rubio, Mike Waltz, and Elbridge Colby for top foreign policy positions appears to be favorable to Taiwan; however, risks continue to abound as Trump’s relationship with China continues to evolve, according to East-West Center senior fellow Denny Roy.
In a recent article in Asia Times, Roy said Taiwan’s status is tenuous due to Trump’s personal relationship with Chinese leader Xi Jinping (習近平) and the simple fact that Taiwan is too small to play a major role in geopolitics. Furthermore, Roy posits that Trump will seek to repeal the internationalist stance that has dominated US foreign policy since the end of WWII.
Roy said the most immediate challenge Taiwan faces is increasing defense spending as a percentage of GDP. Trump’s pick for the top Pentagon policy position, Elbridge Colby, has called for Taiwan’s defense spending floor to be 5% of GDP with a suggested target of 10%. Colby said Taiwan’s defense spending currently sits at 2.5% in a recent social media post.
Another challenge for Taiwan according to Roy is Trump’s anti-internationalist approach which differs from current US President Joe Biden, who strongly supported Taiwan's autonomy and liberal democratic model. Roy said Trump will be hesitant to defend Taiwan, as he believes Taiwan is too small and too close to China.
Trump has also publicly expressed respect for Xi, which may lead him to coalesce on the status of Taiwan, much like Trump's tacit support of China’s persecution of the Uyghurs, and even his lifting of sanctions on Chinese telecom provider ZTE.
Roy added that Trump’s top foreign policy picks may not serve the entirety of Trump's term, and even if they remain in office, they may be unable to dissuade billionaires Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, who have been known to hold sway over Trump. Musk has deep business interests associated with Tesla production and sales in China, even going so far as to bill himself as “kind of pro-China.”
The biggest threat that Taiwan may face according to Roy is its status may be left to others to decide.
South Korea has often used the analogy of being "a shrimp among whales," to describe its status alongside more powerful neighbors. Roy believes the metaphor is increasingly applicable to Taiwan, especially as the Trump administration 2.0 finds its way, navigating a sea of uncertainty.