TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — A new poll on Tuesday (Nov. 19) found that a majority of Taiwanese doubt US President-elect Donald Trump would send military support to defend Taiwan if China invades.
As Trump is poised to return to the White House, the Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation (TPOF)'s latest poll revealed that 57.2% of respondents do not believe the Trump administration will send troops to Taiwan in the event of a Chinese attack. However, 65.3% of Taiwanese citizens are not worried about the impact of a Trump presidency on US-Taiwan relations.
In addition, 44.2% of Taiwanese are not pleased with the idea of Trump winning the 2024 election, and 47.6% expressed a negative view of him, both higher than positive responses. TPOF Chair You Ying-lung (游盈隆) observed that while the Taiwanese once had a favorable view of Trump, his recent unpredictable actions have led many to temper their expectations.
When asked, "If the Communist Party of China were to send troops to attack Taiwan, do you believe the Trump administration would send troops to help defend Taiwan?" In response, 5.5% selected “very much believe,” 24.3 chose “somewhat believe,” 30.2% opted for “do not believe very much,” and 27% marked “do not believe at all." In addition, 9.3% had no opinion and 3.6% were unsure or refused to answer.

You asserted the Trump presidency will have a great psychological impact on the Taiwanese people, second only to the shock Taiwan felt after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. At that time, NATO, led by the US, declared it would not intervene militarily, which led many Taiwanese to doubt whether the US would defend Taiwan in a similar situation.
The poll asked, "Generally speaking, do you admire the new president of the United States, Trump?" In response, 4.6% said “very much," 25% answered “somewhat,” 31.9% responded “not very much," 15.7% replied “not at all,” 18.2% had no opinion, and 4.7% did not know or refused to answer.
You said that compared with four years ago, the number of people who would be happy to see Trump elected has dropped by 21.8%, while those who would not be happy to see him win have increased by 12.7%. This is undoubtedly a huge change, You said.
The poll also asked, "Overall, if Trump wins the presidential election in 2024, are you worried that Taiwan-US relations will deteriorate in the future?" Among the respondents, 7.5% were “very worried,” 19.8% were “somewhat worried,” 42.7% were “not too worried,” and 22.6% were “not worried at all.” In addition, 5.8% had no opinion and 1.6% were unsure or refused to answer.
You said the majority of Taiwanese people would rather believe that US-Taiwan relations are rock solid under any circumstances. Facing a world that may be more turbulent in the future, You said it is impressive that the Taiwanese are still remarkably calm and composed.
The TPOF survey, conducted Nov. 11-13, was based on valid samples from 1,017 adults aged 20 and above. A dual-frame random sampling method was used, with 70% of respondents contacted via landline and 30% via mobile phones, and a margin of error of approximately ±3.07 percentage points and a confidence level of 95%.