TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Taiwanese academics predict the Trump administration will pressure Taiwan to ramp up military spending. 

They said that given Trump’s previous remarks the US will likely push Taiwan to bear more responsibility for self-defense and boost its defense budget. 

Institute for National Defense and Security Research Research Fellow and Director Su Tzu-yun (蘇紫雲) told CNA that during his previous term, Trump shifted from bundled arms sales to a case-by-case approval process. He also deepened Taiwan-US military exchanges and joint training, bringing previously covert operations into the open.

Su believes that Trump’s previous remarks about Taiwan allocating 10% of its GDP to military spending should be considered exaggerations. He said the actual message is likely that “the US is willing to assist NATO, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and other countries, but expects these countries to contribute resources more equitably toward self-defense.”

Chen Wen-chia (陳文甲), a senior advisor at the Taipei-based Institute for National Policy Research, said Trump has repeatedly said that Taiwan should pay the US for defense costs. 

Chen added the Trump administration previously prioritized arms sales to Taiwan, particularly advanced weaponry. These sales may be expanded to include new types of equipment, such as air defense systems and drones. 

Chen said US military training may shift toward a more limited support model, reducing direct training programs in favor of increased technical and equipment support. As a result, Taiwan will need to rely more on its own resources to enhance professional training for its military.

In the future, US-Taiwan cooperation may take the form of military advisory groups, with experts providing guidance and technology transfers. Chen added that US-Taiwan military relations will further develop but may also take on a “more transactional nature,” placing Taiwan under greater responsibility and financial pressure.

National Taiwan University associate politics professor Chen Shih-min (陳世民) told CNA that Trump’s “pay for protection” concept resembles that of an insurance company. In Taiwan, Chen said there is a common belief that, “It's no big deal if it can be resolved with money." 

If Taiwan were to invest more in defense in exchange for a clear security guarantee from the US, similar to Israel, the public would be willing to support the move. However, he said this support is unlikely if the US maintains its policy of strategic ambiguity.

Regarding the military implications of Trump’s return to office, Chen said it will depend on whether Trump’s administration appoints Republican establishment figures or officials from the “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) faction, led by Vice President-elect JD Vance.

Chen said traditional establishment Republicans remain internationalists who believe the US should safeguard democratic countries. If pro-Taiwan figures such as Mike Pompeo or Marco Rubio hold key positions, the strengthened security relationship from Trump’s first term could continue.

Chen said this could potentially include a repeat of the significant arms sales seen in October 2020, such as the HIMARS rocket system and AGM-84 SLAM-ER missiles capable of striking targets in China.

However, if the MAGA faction holds sway, Chen said they would prioritize American interests. This could lead to a reduction in overseas military commitments, with a more “interest-oriented” approach to US-Taiwan security relations, said Chen.