TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Analysts said political uncertainty over the US presidential election and Japan's ruling party parliamentary defeat could embolden China and other rivals in the Indo-Pacific region.
Japan plunged into political uncertainty on Sunday (Oct. 27) after its Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) suffered its worst parliamentary defeat in 15 years, per Reuters. The loss is a blow to Japan’s newly elected Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru, leaving the ruling party grappling for support from opposition parties to get policies through parliament.
Japan’s election upset comes a week before the US votes for a new president on Nov. 5. Nations are bracing for the uncertainty a second Trump presidency would bring, as he has threatened to break long-standing treaties and pressured countries, including Japan, to pay more for US military support.
Ishiba said strengthening US-Japan relations was a priority amid security challenges in Asia over China and North Korea. In response to Beijing’s military activity around Japan and Taiwan, including the first intrusion by a Chinese jet into Japan’s airspace in August, Tokyo is conducting its largest military expansion since World War II.
Japan, which has more US soldiers stationed than any foreign country, is crucial to the US’s Indo-Pacific strategy. As Chinese military power grows, the US will increasingly rely on Japan for security cooperation.
Analysts said China could increase intrusions into Japanese territory and increase pressure on Taiwan. In addition, North Korea, with cooperation from Russia, could step up ballistic missile testing.
The late Prime Minister Abe Shinzo’s former adviser Taniguchi Tomohiko said, "From Beijing's viewpoint, this (election result) signals an ideal scenario: a politically immobilized Japan.” He said, "China's intrusions into Japan's airspace and waters are likely to intensify, while military provocations toward Taiwan may well become routine.”
Rorschach Advisory in Tokyo analyst Joseph Kraft said, "I don't think Japan will back away from national security, but there is no doubt distractions will hamper proactive action…I'm sure the Western world's adversaries are smiling.”
"With the US divided, it helps to have a stable Japan,” added the US State Department Japan Affairs Office former head Kevin Maher. “The question is how much initiative the government...will be able to take going forward as they start the process very, very soon.”
Questions loom over how Japan will fund its new defense plans, as opposition parties won over voters with promises of tax cuts.