TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Taiwan is predicted to become a super-aged society by next year.
The National Development Council (NDC) released its population projections for 2024-2070 on Thursday (Oct. 17), warning the nation's long-term aging trend has worsened. By 2030, the population will drop below 23 million, with a median age of 48.7.
By 2039, the proportion of the population aged 65 and older will exceed 30%. The NDC updates population projections every two years.
According to the latest projections, if each woman has only one child, key short-term population milestones remain unchanged from previous estimates. Taiwan's demographic dividend in which the share of the working-age population is greater than the non-working population will also end in 2028.
The NDC said by 2024, about a quarter of countries or regions, including Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, China, and Thailand will experience negative population growth. Taiwan's population is forecast to decrease from 23.4 million in 2024 to 14.97 million in 2070.
During this period, children aged 0-14 will decline by 1.71 million, young and middle-aged people aged 15-64 will decrease by 9.2 million, and elderly aged 65 and older will increase by 2.48 million.
The NDC predicted that due to increased life expectancy and low fertility rates, the proportion of the population aged 65 and older will rise from 19.2% in 2024 to 46.5% in 2070. During this time, the median age will increase from 45.1 to 62.4.
In addition, the current ratio of 3.6 working-age people supporting one elderly person will drop to one working-age individual supporting one elderly person.
The NDC said population decline and aging will profoundly affect society, but can also present new opportunities to transform industry and the economy.
In Thursday's meeting, Minister without Portfolio Chen Shih-chung (陳時中) and relevant ministries discussed strengthening response strategies.
To address the declining birthrate, the discussions included expanding the eligibility for assisted reproductive subsidies and extending parental leave benefits. Regarding the labor market, efforts will be focused on expanding labor force participation among middle-aged and older adults and women, attracting global talent, and further cultivating talent for various industries.
For economic and industrial policy, the government will use AI to strengthen industrial upgrading and transformation and reduce manpower needs. Regarding fiscal policy, measures are being considered to respond to the shrinking tax base and rising social welfare expenditures.
The NDC said the government will consider ways to cope with a super-aged society by expanding healthcare and caregiving capabilities, introducing smart technology, and creating new models for health and care services. It will review strategy effectiveness on a quarterly or biannual basis and will adjust, optimize, or add new policies as needed.
