TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Former American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) Chair James Moriarty on Tuesday (Oct. 15) said Article 8 of China's Anti-Secession Law is like a ticking time bomb. 

The Washington think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and the Prospect Foundation co-hosted a forum titled “Employing ‘Non-Peaceful’ Means Against Taiwan: The Implications of China’s Anti-Secession Law,” where Moriarty delivered remarks. 

He described the Anti-Secession Law as "a horrible thing" and the Article 8 provision which lays out certain conditions under which it could use force. 

Article 8 of the Anti-Secession Law states: "In the event that the 'Taiwan independence' secessionist forces should act under any name or by any means to cause the fact of Taiwan's secession from China, or that major incidents entailing Taiwan's secession from China should occur, or that possibilities for a peaceful reunification should be completely exhausted, the state shall employ non-peaceful means and other necessary measures to protect China's sovereignty and territorial integrity."

Moriarty said, “That to me was always a ticking timebomb. It was always we (Beijing) can decide when we've given up hope.”  

He recalled that when China passed the Anti-Secession Law, the US was worried that Taiwan was attempting to change the status quo in the Taiwan Strait. He said that Taiwan's former President Chen Shui-bian's (陳水扁) push for a referendum on joining the United Nations "did have us scared." 

The US opposed such actions at the time and Moriarity said Chen's actions while in office could be part of the reason why the Anti-Secession Law got less attention at the time. However, Moriarity argued the situation in Taiwan has changed since then.

Moriarty said that, based on his recent visits to Taiwan, while the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) remains in power for a third presidential term, there have been no moves toward independence. He then asked the audience, “Does anybody here genuinely expect to see Taiwan peacefully, without coercion, decide to unify with mainland China in the foreseeable future?” To which there was no response. 

Moriarty said previous Chinese leaders, such as Hu Jintao (胡錦濤) and Jiang Zemin (江澤民) had no intention of “forcing the issue of Taiwan at all” and were willing to defer it to the future.

However, he said things have changed under Xi Jinping (習近平), who is no longer willing to “kick this can down the road to the next generation.”

Moriarty said that China's growing power, along with the introduction of the “22 Opinions” on punishing Taiwan independence activists has pressured Chinese authorities to take action.

He argued the West still has time to act. Moriarity closed by pointing out that there are no moves toward peaceful unification with China in Taiwan.