TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Sydney must consider how a Taiwan Strait conflict could affect Australia’s national security, former Australian Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Dibb said in an opinion article published on Monday (Sept. 30).
“We need to recognize that, unlike Ukraine, Taiwan may become directly important in our defense planning priorities,” Dibb said. A successful invasion of Taiwan by China would immediately threaten Australia’s security, he said.
If China defeated the US in the Taiwan Strait, Beijing would be able to expand southwards unchecked and set up military bases near Australia. This would strategically isolate the Oceanic country and without the US to take action, Southeast Asia and the South Pacific would “effectively come into China’s sphere of influence.”
Japan and South Korea could then relinquish sea and air control of the East China Sea and the South China Sea to China. Beijing would gain military dominance in the region, leading Tokyo and Seoul to acquire nuclear strike capabilities, Dibb said.
With the US out of the picture, Australia would lose access to American intelligence and advanced military platforms, the former official added. The only credible defense Australia could provide would be to deny Chinese ships from entering the straits of Southeast Asia (Malacca, Sunda, and Lombok).
The worst-case scenario would be if a Russian defeat of NATO members such as Poland coincided with a Chinese victory over Taiwan. This could begin a nuclear war, Dibb said, as his analysis focuses on the dangers of not resisting China rather than deterring China.
Dibb's commentary comes after a Royal Australian Navy missile destroyer, the HMAS Sydney, and the Royal New Zealand Navy supply ship, the HMNZS Endeavour, sailed through the Taiwan Strait from north to south, per RW News.
This marks the first time Australian and New Zealand naval ships have passed through the strait together.