TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — A Geopolitical Intelligence Services report analyzed whether Taiwan’s relations with its Spanish-speaking diplomatic allies would last.
Ana Rosa Quintana-Lovett, senior director of policy for the Washington D.C.-based Vandenberg Coalition, predicted that future ties with Guatemala would likely remain steady but said there was a risk Paraguay could drop Taiwan in favor of better trade deals with China.
Quintana-Lovett pointed out that Guatemala’s president, Bernardo Arevalo, has pledged to maintain relations with Taiwan and met with Taiwan President Lai Ching-te (賴清德) during his inauguration in May.
Arevalo has expressed interest in enhancing trade with China, but is also strengthening ties with the US, where officials have supported the Central American nation’s continued relations with Taiwan, she said.
In June, Arevalo hoped to form a strategic alliance with Taiwan to boost Guatemalan industries. The president said he was interested in technical cooperation projects with Taiwan and the concept of carbon trading.
China banned the import of Guatemalan macadamia nuts and coffee beans for nearly three weeks in May. Arevalo speculated that this was due to Guatemala's diplomatic relations with Taiwan.
In August, Guatemala Vice Foreign Minister Julio Eduardo Orozco Perez conveyed Arevalo and Foreign Minister Carlos Martinez’s commitment to strengthening bilateral relations during a visit to Taiwan. The vice minister hoped that future economic and trade exchanges and talent development would continue to deepen the friendly ties between the two countries.
“Given these factors, there is a low likelihood of Guatemala severing ties in the near future,” Quintana-Lovett said. However, she said things could change if Arevalo decided Taiwan did not provide enough financial aid for projects. Beijing could also offer Guatemala enticing development deals.
Quintana-Lovett said Taiwan could lose Paraguay due to the South American reliance on agricultural exports, including soy and beef. She noted that it has been unable to export its beef to the US since 1997 and faces an embargo by China.
Additionally, the US Democratic and Republican parties, support protectionist measures to block foreign competition.
Taiwan has been unable to match China’s financial packages offered to neighboring countries, Quintana-Lovett added. From 2010 to 2019, Beijing poured approximately US$14 billion (NT$446.07 billion) into regional investments, while Taiwanese aid to Paraguay is around $150 million every five years, she said.
“At some point, the potential economic benefits from receiving Chinese investments will prove too much for the impoverished nation to refuse,” the scholar said.
Paraguay Ambassador to Taiwan Carlos Jose Fleitas Rodriguez reaffirmed rock-solid bilateral ties in September, saying that Taiwan-Paraguay relations are built on the shared values of democracy, cooperation, and friendship. Fleitas emphasized that the two countries believe in justice and the rule of law.
Later in the month, Fleitas emphasized that “Paraguay has become one of Taiwan's most staunch advocates in international forums, thus demonstrating that this diplomatic relationship has become a stone clause of the foreign policies of both nations.”
In July, Paraguay President Santiago Pena expressed interest in boosting soybean and beef exports to China. "We have no constraints on doing trade with China,” he said but stressed that ties with Taiwan would remain unchanged.
