TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Scholars expressed support for the Cabinet’s initiative to build domestically-produced submarines but raised concerns about the budget on Friday (Aug. 23).
Most scholars pointed to the possibility of budget overruns given the 14-year timeline. One scholar questioned building a submarine before undergoing sea acceptance testing (SAT), while another argued that it demonstrates Taiwan’s commitment to self-defense, per CNA.
Tamkang University Assistant Professor Chung Chieh (揭仲) supported the idea of homemade submarines to enhance Taiwan’s defensive capacity and deemed the Cabinet’s timeline reasonable. However, Chung cautioned against mass production of the Hai Kun submarine before completing its SAT.
Chung explained that the complexity of a submarine’s SAT, combined with the Hai Kun’s innovative design, increases the risk of entering mass production without proper testing of the prototype. He noted that Taiwan’s submarine program lacks technical guidance from major manufacturers, making it riskier than licensing a proven design.
Chung argued that given the state of the Hai Kun program, if the Cabinet secures more funding than initially planned, there is still a risk of budget overruns.
Institute for National Defense and Security (INDS) Assistant Research Fellow Jiang Hsinbiao (江炘杓) commended the Cabinet for allocating a budget for future construction even before the Hai Kun submarine completes its SAT. He claimed this signifies the government’s confidence in developing Taiwan’s first domestically-produced submarine and its determination to secure vital areas in the Taiwan Strait to deter potential enemy incursions.
However, Jiang mentioned a potential challenge in allocating the budget for seven submarines at once, as prices may fluctuate and equipment may change due to technological advancements or acquisition issues. He said fitting all additional expenses into the original budget would be difficult.
INDS Researcher Su Tzu-yun (蘇紫雲) commented that the Hai Kun submarine production schedule aligns with international standard practices, such as the procurement of the Constellation-class frigate by the United States Navy. He explained that there would be a rough estimate of the total cost at the beginning, but Congress would allocate funds on a yearly basis.
Su anticipated the Hai Kun’s construction would occur in batches, with evaluations after each batch to incorporate improvements and adjust for price increases. Su estimated the cost per ship to be around NT$40 billion, or roughly NT$35.5 billion if ammunition costs were deducted.
Premier Cho Jung-tai (卓榮泰) approved, on Thursday, the NT$284 billion budget for the construction of seven submarines between 2025 and 2038.
