TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — The Biden administration approved a new nuclear strategic plan in May, designed to deter potential coordinated attacks from multiple adversaries.

Pranay Vaddi, the National Security Council’s senior director for arms control and nonproliferation, said the updated US strategy aims to simultaneously deter China, Russia, and North Korea. The plan, known as the nuclear employment guidance, is a highly classified document that is revised every four years, per the New York Times.

According to MIT nuclear strategist Vipin Narang, the latest version specifically addresses China’s rapid expansion of its nuclear arsenal. Combined with Russia’s volatility and North Korea’s growing nuclear capabilities, this new reality necessitated a reevaluation of US strategy.

Since President Harry Truman, the US nuclear deterrence strategy has primarily focused on Russia. However, China’s deepening ties with Russia, along with the conventional weapons supplied by Iran and North Korea to Russia for the Ukraine war, forced the US to consider the possibility of a coordinated nuclear attack.

Xi Jinping’s (習近平) deviation from China’s long-standing “minimum deterrent” strategy has led to a rapid increase in its nuclear arsenal, surpassing the pace predicted by US intelligence officials two years ago. The Pentagon currently estimates that China could match the nuclear stockpiles of Russia and the US by 2035.

Furthermore, China halted its short-lived talks with the US on nuclear safety and security, citing arms sales to Taiwan as a reason for withdrawing. Assistant Secretary of State for Arms Control, Verification, and Compliance Mallory Stewart noted that China may be emulating Russia’s strategy of denying bilateral cooperation until tensions are eased, at the risk of incurring misunderstandings and miscalculations.

North Korea’s nuclear arsenal was once considered manageable due to the sufficiency of missile defense systems for intercepting its limited number of nuclear weapons, but, with approximately 60 nuclear weapons and the capability to produce more, North Korea now poses a significant threat. The US can no longer ignore the possibility of coordinated strikes involving China, Russia, and North Korea, the report noted. 

Russia has become increasingly volatile following a series of aggressive actions toward its western neighbor, culminating in the invasion of Ukraine. Amid the invasion and facing Western nations arming Ukraine, Russia has repeatedly threatened to use nuclear weapons in response to perceived escalations.

In October 2020, Biden and his aides feared a high probability of Russia deploying nuclear weapons in Ukraine after intercepting calls between senior commanders. In response, the US and Germany persuaded China and India to make public statements condemning the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine.

Officials acknowledged that the evolving nuclear landscape necessitates a shift in US nuclear deterrence. Narang highlighted the new challenge posed by the potential collaboration or even collusion among US nuclear-armed rivals.