TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — With the presidential tickets from both major US political parties decided, Taiwan is considering how a Kamala Harris presidency or a second term in office for Donald Trump would impact US-Taiwan relations.
Harris is widely expected to continue along a foreign policy path set by President Joe Biden, while her running mate has come under the spotlight for his ties with China. Meanwhile, Donald Trump recently repeated calls for Taiwan to pay the US for its self-defense, and his running mate suggested the US focus defense spending on Taiwan instead of Ukraine.
Professor at Tamkang University and Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies Director Da-jung Li (李大中) told Taiwan News in a written interview that it is generally understood the US will remain very supportive of Taiwan, whoever wins the presidency in November. “There is already a cross-party consensus, and support from Congress is even clearer,” he said.
Li said this phenomenon reflects the US elite’s strong concern about the strategic challenges posed by China. He also said public sentiment toward Beijing in the US has become more negative in recent years.
US foreign policy will continue to emphasize the need for peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait, Li said. It will continue to be governed by the Taiwan Relations Act, the Six Assurances on Taiwan, and the Three Communiques, he said.
“In the foreseeable future, Taiwan-US relations will continue to be strong, stable, and highly predictable,” he said.
Li said that many in Taiwan believe if Trump wins the presidency he would offer support, but the overall foreign policy direction of the US remains uncertain. He said if Harris wins the presidency, she will inherit Biden's clearly pro-Taiwan policy, which may be more predictable.
However, Li said how a Harris administration would approach the US policy of strategic ambiguity towards Taiwan remains an important question. Strategic ambiguity refers to the US' strong rhetorical opposition to unilateral changes in the cross-strait status quo, without making an explicit commitment to defend Taiwan if attacked.
“Biden has made at least five public statements on the issue of Beijing launching an invasion of Taiwan, which can be regarded as moving US policy in a clear direction," Li said. "But officially, the US strategic ambiguity policy remains.”
Assistant Professor of Political Science at Soochow University Fang-Yu Chen (陳方隅) told Taiwan News the Biden administration has been good for Taiwan, and added he thinks Harris will continue Biden’s policies if elected in November. However, he noted that Harris and running mate Tim Walz have limited foreign policy experience.
“There are pros and cons to this. A pro is that we can guess most of their strategies would be determined by other experienced diplomats, foreign policymakers, and strategists,“ Chen said. “A con is that Harris and Walz are unfamiliar with the current networks of American allies, so they may need some time to reconnect with them,” he said.
According to Time Magazine, Walz has visited China over 30 times, speaks some Chinese, and has a record of working on China-focused legislation. Chen said this will be good for Taiwan, because Walz will be familiar with the Chinese Communist Party’s pitfalls.
Walz also said he stands with the Hong Kong democracy protests in 2017, and met the Dalai Lama in 2016. “If you support Hong Kong and Tibet, you are not so-called ‘pro-China,’” Chen said, addressing a criticism that has been leveled at Walz for his China ties.
Walz has also been vocal in his support for Taiwan as governor of Minnesota, a state that has longstanding ties with Taiwan. However, Chen said this does not necessarily indicate he will be more supportive of Taiwan if elected, relative to other candidates.
Chen said in recent years Taiwan’s representatives in the US have been active in connecting with local governments. He said for this reason, Walz’s past work with Taiwan is not particularly special in the context of a possible vice presidency, but rather signals Taiwan's strong relationship with the US overall.
During the 2020 and 2024 presidential campaigns, Trump said Taiwan should pay the US for protection, and has said other countries should contribute more to the US for the defense it provides. Li said this shows Trump’s transactional foreign policy style, adding Trump believes Taiwan should show its determination to improve its self-defense through increased defense spending.
“Assuming Trump won the election, the role of his national security teams will be critical," Li said. “Many who have been reported in the media as possible members have been quite supportive of Taiwan, and advocate for a tough stance on China,” he said.
He said a future Harris-Walz administration’s security team would be equally important for Taiwan, but said little is known about who might work on it at this stage.
Chen also described Trump’s interactions with allies as transactional, and said his suggestion that Taiwan should pay the US for protection is nothing new. “But behind him is a rising isolationist trend, and that is worrisome for all of the world I think,” Chen said.
Chen also said that if elected, Trump would likely cause an increase of a phenomenon known in Taiwan as “US skepticism (疑美論),” referring to a belief the US is an untrustworthy international partner acting exclusively in its own interest, and could abandon Taiwan. “Everything out of his mouth echoes the idea of ‘US skepticism,’” he said.
Skepticism or not, Li said he believes there is no chance of a future Trump administration abandoning Taiwan.
However, he said Taiwan will need to continue to monitor the US-China relationship closely if Trump is elected, as he may use Taiwan issues as a means to pressure Beijing. In 2017, Trump said “everything is under negotiation, 'including one-China,'" and Li cited this as an example of how Trump is willing to use Taiwan to pressure China.
Trump’s running mate JD Vance has said he thinks the US should redirect military aid from Ukraine to Taiwan. In a speech in April, he said preventing a Chinese invasion of Taiwan should be prioritized, as it would “decimate” the US economy.
Chen said this may be good for Taiwan in the short term, and that this view is held by some Republicans who think the US should spend more on the Indo-Pacific and less on Europe. However, he said if Ukraine is forced to negotiate peace with Russia, it could be seen as a reflection of Western democracies’ inability to push back against dictatorships.
“So if in the long run, as Trump or Vance have suggested, the Ukrainians are forced into negotiation, I think that’s very dangerous for Taiwan." Trump said in January that he would end the Ukraine-Russia war if he wins the presidency through negotiations, and told Reuters in 2023 that Ukraine might have to cede some territory to reach an agreement.
Li also said there has been some agreement in the Republican Party on Vance’s suggestion vis-a-vis spending on Taiwan and Ukraine, but that it appears no unified consensus has been formed.
Comments from JD Vance made in 2021 recently resurfaced in which the candidate said the US is run by “childless cat ladies … who want to make the country miserable.”
Taiwan is notable in Asia for electing women to senior leadership positions, including former President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) and current Vice President Hsiao Bi-khim (蕭美琴). Both leaders are well known for their love of pets, with Hsiao earning the “cat warrior” moniker when she was Taiwan’s representative to the US.
“I think Taiwanese people are very lucky, because we don't have to get involved in American culture war debates,” Chen said. He added that while these issues are important for the US domestic voter, he believes they are very unlikely to affect international relations with any country, let alone the US-Taiwan relationship.
