TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — A Japanese government report warns that China’s ability to invade Taiwan has improved substantially.
The report outlines a possible timeline of events if Beijing was to fully commit to an invasion of Taiwan. It suggests that if the Chinese government and military coordinate forces effectively, troops could land in Taiwan within one week of initiating hostilities, reported the Yomiuri Shimbun.
The report is based on an analysis of China’s military training operations during the summer of 2023 involving naval vessels and missile launches. The findings, which were only reported to the public this week, indicate that China’s technical and organizational capacity has improved beyond what many previous analyses have suggested.
In light of the findings, the report says that Tokyo must remain vigilant and boost efforts at deterrence to avoid conflict over Taiwan. The report also notes that China likely considers a rapid assault strategy as its best hope to exploit the situation, before the U.S. has time to organize a response.
The Yomiuri article says that Prime Minister Kishida Fumio (岸田文雄) saw the contents of the report earlier this year.
The general order of operations for a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan outlined in the reports comports with most analyses of the situation. However, previous reports estimated approximately one month for how long it may take Chinese forces to establish a secure beachhead and supply lines.
The new report describes a much more urgent scenario.
The hypothetical invasion scenario covers four main phases, including: a naval blockade, bombardment of military facilities, an amphibious and aerial assault to establish a beachhead, and finally the mass transport of equipment and ground forces.
The analysts who wrote the report believe that with proper coordination and weather conditions, Chinese forces could potentially begin the fourth phase within four to five days after imposing a naval blockade.
The report also expects China to employ cyberattacks on key infrastructure and agents in Taiwan to cause confusion, limit communications, and access to energy. This “hybrid warfare” strategy could potentially paralyze Taiwan’s government during the crucial first days of an invasion campaign.
