TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — A Washington Post columnist revealed the U.S. military plans to create a "hellscape" to thwart a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, using unmanned weapons to buy time.

In an op-ed on Monday (June 10), Josh Rogin cited the top American commander in the Pacific as saying the key for the U.S. and regional partners to ensure that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan fails lies in turning the Taiwan Strait into an "unmanned hellscape" before China can cross it. This would buy time for Taiwanese, American, and partner forces.

In his article "The U.S. military plans a ‘Hellscape’ to deter China from attacking Taiwan," Rogin argued that time is of the essence and that the U.S. must quickly turn these plans into feasible strategies.

Rogin cited Admiral Samuel Paparo, commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, who told him after attending the Shangri-La Dialogue security conference in Singapore that China would prefer a swift and intense war to seize Taiwan before the world could react. Rogin said China aims to avoid the protracted conflict that Russia faced in its invasion of Ukraine.

Paparo indicated that the U.S.'s "hellscape" strategy is crucial to foiling China's invasion plans. This involves deploying thousands of unmanned submarines, surface vessels, and aerial drones in the Taiwan Strait as soon as China's invasion fleet begins to cross, thereby buying time for a full-scale counterattack by Taiwanese, American, and partner forces.

The author said that in March, the U.S. Department of Defense announced a US$1 billion "Replicator" program to mass produce drones and unmanned surface vessels for this mission. Paparo shared that the U.S. has learned from Ukraine's innovative use of drone technology in its war with Russia.

However, Rogin wrote the delivery timeline for these systems is unclear. According to most U.S. think tank simulations of a Taiwan Strait conflict, if these unmanned weapon systems are not ready by the time of a Chinese invasion, it could increase the risk of a prolonged war, causing significant losses to U.S. naval and air forces and potentially expanding the conflict to include allies such as Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines.

Rogin also cautioned that even if the U.S. can promptly deploy autonomous systems in the Taiwan Strait, unmanned weapon systems alone cannot counter China's extensive military expansion in the region. He warned that the People's Liberation Army (PLA) is rapidly boosting its nuclear, naval, air, cyber, intelligence, and electronic warfare capabilities. 

He estimated that the PLA's military budget might be three times the publicly disclosed amount, potentially reaching US$700 billion annually.

The journalist mentioned additional issues, including the U.S. military's lack of a reliable method to counter China's hypersonic cruise missiles, the vulnerability of U.S. space assets to Chinese attacks, severe delays in U.S. arms deliveries to Taiwan, and the Biden administration's slow response to Japan's call to set up a new joint task force to deal with conflicts in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea. 

He also warned of the possibility of Beijing blockading Taiwan, and using economic coercion, political interference, and disinformation to push the Taiwanese into accepting annexation.

Paparo observed that Western attempts over the past 40 years to persuade China to adopt political freedoms have failed, leading Asia into a more dangerous era.

Rogin concluded that while no one wants to see an arms race in Asia, if China insists on one, “the U.S. and its partners cannot afford to lose it.” If the U.S. does not take more decisive action, Chinese leader Xi Jinping (習近平)  “may soon conclude Taiwan is his for the taking," warned Rogin.