TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — The outcomes of a Taiwan Strait conflict will likely be determined by five factors in the U.S.-China strategic rivalry, per the Financial Times.

Missiles

“It’s all about missiles,” according to MIT security expert Eric Heginbotham. The People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) Rocket Force has amassed a large arsenal of short, medium, and intermediate-range ballistic missiles that could strike U.S. Navy ships and military aircraft, preventing them from air and sea access in the region. 

Most notable of China’s missiles are the Dongfeng-17, which carries a warhead capable of going hypersonic, and the Dongfeng-26, dubbed the “Guam Express” due to its ability to hit U.S. Pacific Island territories.

The U.S. could deploy surface-launched missiles, with a range over 500km, to hit Chinese targets if granted permission by Japan and the Philippines. Taiwan has also ramped up missile production to 1000 in 2024. Its stockpile of missiles can travel up to 2,000 km.

In a war game at the Center for Strategic and International, China failed to seize Taiwan in multiple scenarios, but the “U.S. lost between 168 and 372 aircraft on carriers and at air bases,” per Financial Times.

Geography

The U.S. is also coordinating with regional partners to disperse its forces, making it more difficult for China to attack. In Japan, it moved aircraft from Air Force bases to smaller airfields, and the Navy has followed suit. The Marine Corps has practiced moving small units to isolated islands or coastal jungles. 

Additionally, the U.S. Army has plans to deploy Tomahawk and SM-6 missiles in the region. It recently sent some Typhon missile systems to the Philippines.

Submarines

Chinese military expert Sarah Kirchberger told the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission last year that Washington’s submarine advantage is being eroded. The technological gap between China and the U.S. “is shrinking”, she said. 

In January 2023, China revealed its first nuclear submarine with a pump-jet propulsor, making it faster and quieter than its previous subs. The Chinese military also built two new piers at its Yulin Naval Base on Hainan Island.

The U.S. signed AUKUS in 2021, allowing Australia to acquire nuclear submarines by 2040. As a stopgap, the U.S. will sell Virginia-class subs to Australia.

U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell recently said having several countries operating submarines in close coordination would have “enormous implications” for scenarios that included Taiwan. 

Space technology

China has rapidly developed its satellite technology and increased communications and intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) operations. The U.S. no longer has a “monopoly” on space ISR, U.S. Space Force intelligence officer Major General Gregory Gagnon said.

The CIA has warned that China is producing “sophisticated cyber weapons” to gain control of enemy satellites in wartime, Financial Times said. In March, U.S. chief of space operations General Chance Saltzman said China deployed more than 470 ISR satellites as part of a “sensor-shooter kill web” that puts global U.S. forces in danger.

Nuclear arsenal

China has 500 nuclear warheads and is expected to have 1,500 by 2035, the Pentagon said. It can also launch nukes from land, air, and sea.

Greg Weaver, a nuclear weapons expert, said China’s nuclear power instills doubts on whether the U.S. could eliminate Chinese nuclear strike capabilities in a Taiwan Strait conflict. “Is our stake in Taiwan high enough to risk nuclear war with China?” Weaver asked.

The U.S. could attack Chinese military ships during a beach landing operation in Taiwan. However, China could threaten the use of nuclear force to coerce U.S. allies into limiting support for American intervention in the region.