TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Taiwan President-elect Lai Ching-te (賴清德) made it clear when electioneering he does not seek independence for Taiwan, instead setting the goal of maintaining peace and the cross-strait status quo.
Before Lai clarified that position, White House officials expressed concern about his cross-strait stance. All the while Beijing has shown reluctance to move past Lai's self-description as a “pragmatic worker for independence” that he made when serving as Taiwan's premier.
Director of the Taiwan Center for Security Studies Liu Fu-kuo (劉復國) told Taiwan News on Tuesday (May 14) that Lai should continue to develop the messaging he presented during his presidential campaign. He said if Lai does so, it will help Taiwan's government reopen communication with China.
Liu said achieving this and balancing competing Chinese and U.S. interests will be the biggest challenges for Lai’s administration.
Rumors that Lai will extend a message of goodwill to China have recently made news in Taiwan. “This is obviously the right move,” Liu said.
Lai has selected a Cabinet of experienced ministers, but without “redefining” the foundations of cross-strait relations, there will be no change from the past eight years, Liu said. “The basic point is, if President Lai wishes to dialogue with China, he will have to reconsider the political foundation of the 1992 consensus.”
The “consensus” is a longstanding tacit agreement reached between Taiwan’s then KMT-led government and the Chinese government in 1992. It has been interpreted by the KMT as meaning there is only one China, with different understandings of what “China” means.
The DPP has never acknowledged the consensus. In December, Vice President-elect Hsiao Bi-khim (蕭美琴) suggested the concept was dated, and Lai has said accepting it risks Taiwan’s sovereignty.
Taiwan News asked Liu if he thought accepting the “1992 consensus” would alienate the DPP’s supporters. He said it may hurt the “hard-core,” but was optimistic that centrist voters might be swayed.
“One of Lai Ching-te’s political skills is to convince his followers that he can present a more pragmatic and practical approach when it is needed,” he said.
By contrast, Associate Professor of Political Science at Taipei’s Soochow University, Chen Fang-yu (陳方隅), told Taiwan News the belief that Lai is “pro-independence” is incorrect. He said the term is used by some international media and think tanks who often do not understand why or how it is used.
“It's a very big misunderstanding, and Lai will have to explain this as president,” Chen said. He said that Lai has to tell policy makers in the U.S. that no matter what Taiwan does, China will not accept any offers of discussion without agreement on the “one China principle.”
Chen added the Lai administration should continue to show the U.S and others that Taiwan has the ability to defend itself, particularly in the context of the coming U.S. presidential election.
Taiwan’s outgoing Foreign Minister Joseph Wu (吳釗燮) published an article in Foreign Affairs on May 9 outlining increases in defense spending under Taiwan's current president Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文). Chen said efforts like this should be continued, and said he is optimistic that Wu's successor would be able to fill this role in time.
“We have to show very firmly to the international community that we have the ability and the willingness to defend ourselves,” he said. “If we do not do that, then more questions will come,” Chen said.
