TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — A retired rear admiral on May 7 said “History is rhyming” and the U.S. would be "wise to take Xi at his word” over his rhetoric about annexing Taiwan by force if necessary.
In Episode 7 of the podcast “Why Should We Care About the Defense of the Indo-Pacific?” former U.S. Office of Naval Intelligence Commander Rear Admiral Mike Studeman and retired Major General Mick Ryan of the Royal Australian Army talked about the importance of defending Taiwan.
Co-host Ray Powell, Director of SeaLight, asked Studeman to elaborate on why U.S. Pentagon officials are focusing on the mid-2020s as a possible timeframe for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Studeman said there is a “body of intelligence” that is classified but “relevant.”
Studeman said Chinese leader Xi Jinping (習近平) has been “open” about expediting China's military modernization milestones from 2035 to 2027. He said that beyond the goals of enhanced “mechanization, informatization, intelligentization” of the People's Liberation Army (PLA), 2027 will also mark the 100th anniversary of its founding.
The former naval intelligence official said it has become apparent that Xi wants “Taiwan options” available sooner than the mid-2030s, as he will turn 80 in 2033. Therefore, the PLA has been doing “everything in every warfare area” to accelerate preparations.
Studeman drew parallels with the rapid rise of Nazi Germany and Japan in the 1930s. He said those previous powers were led by authoritarians who had ambitions driven by “messianic goals.”
He said that Beijing is in the same kind of “head space” and actions are being taken that are similar to the build-up to WWII. Studeman warned “History is rhyming a lot and we would be wise to take Xi at his word.”
Studeman said Xi has been preparing his military, officials, and population for “recovering Taiwan” and that this is crucial for China to regain its place as the “strongest pole in a multipolar system and take center stage in the world.”
He said there are facets in which Xi is preparing for war including the military, government, leadership, and economy. He said these are indicators that China is “sprinting toward trying to do something their leader is trying to tell them that they must to do.”
Studeman warned that the U.S. must not be naive and should take Beijing's intentions seriously. He said deterrence can be achieved, but it is currently eroding and more must be done.