TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — The latest My Formosa poll determined the percentage of citizens who consider themselves an ethnic group other than Chinese has risen substantially from the administration of former President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) to the close of President Tsai Ing-wen's (蔡英文) term in office, with over 24% now considering themselves Austronesian and three quarters identifying as Asian.

Comparing polls from 2008 and 2012 when Ma was in office, to the last two years of Tsai's term (2023 and 2024), Taiwanese have increasingly rejected links with China. My Formosa observed the proportion of people identifying themselves as Chinese, members of the Chinese nation (zhonghua minzu), or “citizens of the People's Republic of China” has noticeably declined.  

The percentage of people identifying as Taiwanese in 2024 rose by nearly 3% to 95.3%. Those identifying themselves as “Asian” reached a record high of 75% this year. 

People who think of themselves as Chinese stands at 31.9%, a substantial drop from 46.6% in 2008. Those considering themselves citizens of the People's Republic of China dipped from 9.4% in 2008 to 6.5% this year. 

In the first year, the option was included, 24.1% of 2024 respondents listed themselves as Austronesian. This is more than 10 times higher than the 2.3% of the population listed by the government as of Indigenous heritage.

However, the proportion of those identifying themselves as members of the Chinese nation (zhonghua minzu) has rebounded by 10% from last year to reach 67.5%, and the proportion identifying as ethnic Chinese has reached a new high of 70.6%. People listing themselves as citizens of the Republic of China has rebounded to 84.6%.

“This trend suggests that even if Lai Ching-te intends to emulate Tsai Ing-wen, the previously limitless confrontational approach (to Beijing) may be difficult to sustain,” commented My Formosa.

Despite this increased identification with Chinese ethnicity, My Formosa said this does not mean the two sides will move towards unification. 

In this survey, 76.1% of respondents believe that both sides of the Taiwan Strait are two different countries, with only 9.7% considering both sides to belong to one China and 5.5% considering both sides to belong to one country. Nearly 80% of Taiwanese do not want unification.

Cross-analysis shows that even among supporters of the Kuomintang (KMT), as many as 50.7% believe the two sides of the strait are two different countries, with 23.5% believing that they belong to the same China and 18.7% thinking they are part of the same country. Among pan-blue supporters, 54% consider both sides as two different countries, with 23.3% considering them as part of the same China and 15.7% viewing them as part of the same country. 

When over half of KMT and pan-blue supporters view both sides as two countries, it becomes challenging to sustain either the “one China” principle or the “1992 Consensus," said My Formosa. Even if the consideration is not solely about maximizing votes or leaning towards the center, the KMT cannot afford to alienate its voter base, concluded the report.