TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — A war game by a Washington, D.C.-based think tank showed U.S. submarines and stealth fighter jets repelling Chinese forces invading Taiwan.

The Wall Street Journal on Monday (March 11) released a video of a war simulation by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in 2022. The hexagonal, grid-based map illustrated that U.S. stealth fighters and submarines would be deployed in the north and south of Taiwan to counter the People's Liberation Army (PLA) during a conflict.

The report "The First Battle of the Next War" released in January 2023 presented a summary of 24 war simulations conducted in 2022. They mainly resulted in a failed attempt by the Chinese military to invade Taiwan in 2026, resulting in severe naval losses. The report suggested a Pyrrhic victory, with the U.S., Japan, and Taiwan also experiencing significant losses.

U.S. media reported early last year that in the majority of the 24 military simulations, the U.S. military lost two aircraft carriers and 10 to 20 large surface combatants within three weeks, while Japan lost more than 100 combat aircraft and 26 warships. In addition, all U.S. military bases in Japan were attacked by the PLA.

The PLA navy took heavy losses, the core combat strength of the amphibious force was reduced, and 155 combat aircraft and 138 ships were lost.

The 10-minute video featured Mark Cancian, who is a senior adviser at CSIS and one of the three leaders of the war games. The footage showed three maps used in the simulation, with two of the East Asia region and one of Taiwan.

The war simulation involved two sides, represented by red (Chinese forces) and blue (U.S., Japan, Taiwan). The gameplay followed a turn-based system, using small square pieces.

Each red and blue piece bore an icon representing weapons and units. After each side took its turn, a pause was taken for an "adjudication" in which the losses by each team were estimated.

One scene showed the U.S. military deploying stealth fighters to the north and south of Taiwan, submarines in the South China Sea to the southwest of Taiwan, and bombers to the east of Taiwan. Cancian explained that the primary mission of the U.S. military's navy and air force is to break through the Chinese naval and aerial blockade around Taiwan and intercept the PLA's amphibious landing fleet.

Cancian mentioned that previous war simulations were classified, leading to rumors suggesting unfavorable outcomes for the U.S. Therefore, through an unclassified demonstration, CSIS aimed to explain the situation to the public.

He said the primary defensive forces in Taiwan are concentrated in the northern and central regions. Therefore, the PLA would likely choose to land in the southern part of Taiwan.

However, the challenge for them would be to occupy the entire island and the capital, which would require advancing northward, similar to the Allied forces' strategy in Italy during World War II, advancing "bit by bit, very difficult terrain."

In addition, for the PLA, there are a limited number of beaches in Taiwan favorable for landing troops. Therefore, the PLA would try to capture the Pingtung Airbase by dropping paratroopers and sending air mobile troops via helicopters to enable them to fly in supplies.

Cancian said it is speculated that at the beginning of the conflict, the PLA amphibious forces could successfully land in the Kaohsiung-Pingtung area and eliminate one battalion of the Taiwanese military. However, the airborne forces were less successful, suffering significant losses with three battalions and being unable to capture the airbase.

U.S. submarines would continuously ambush Chinese ships in the Taiwan Strait and resupply in Yokuska, Japan. Meanwhile, the Chinese side will decide to launch a large-scale attack on all bases in Japan with U.S. and Japanese aircraft.

The Taiwanese military moved many of its troops from the north along both coasts to confront PLA forces in the south. More Chinese amphibious forces would land on southern Taiwan beaches, and the paratroopers and airmobile forces would have captured Pingtung Airbase but would still be facing stiff resistance.

In the last turn of the game, three weeks later, Cancian said that the experts predicted that PLA troops would be unable to expand their occupation. Most of the amphibious forces were destroyed.

The U.S. and its allies continued to attack Chinese vessels "relentlessly." As a result, the Chinese side's ability to transport troops and supplies to Taiwan would greatly diminish over time.

Ultimately, Taiwan would repel the invasion, and a significant portion of the remaining PLA troops in the country would become prisoners of war.

In the end, Cancian said this would be a "minor U.S. coalition victory" because it would take a significant amount of time, and Taiwan would suffer substantial damage. However, it would still be a victory because the PLA would be unable to establish a foothold in Taiwan, and Taiwan "endured as an autonomous and democratic entity."

Cancian said there were some scenarios in which the U.S. coalition lost, and the key was whether the U.S. had access to the bases in Japan. If the U.S. is unable to access these bases, it has no way to deploy its air force in sufficient numbers.

In every scenario, the cost for every side involved would be "devastating." Cancian said the big takeaway was that the U.S. and its allies can defend Taiwan, "but it comes at a great cost to the Taiwanese economy, the U.S. and its partners lose very heavily, but so do the Chinese, enough so that the grip of the Chinese Communist Party might be in danger."