TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Taiwan needs a comprehensive strategic shift towards asymmetric warfare to successfully deter a Chinese invasion, former Chief of the General Staff Admiral Lee Hsi-ming (李喜明) said in an interview with Taiwan News.

Lee, who developed and now advocates for the “overall defense concept (ODC),” said Taiwan needs a methodical change “that can guide the force structure, weapons acquisition, doctrine development, joint operational plan, joint training, logistics support” of Taiwan’s military. The defense ministry cannot acquire asymmetric capabilities just by purchasing certain weapons such as missiles, he said.

ODC, which emphasizes deterrence by denial, was conceptualized by Lee when he served as Taiwan’s chief of the general staff from 2017-2019. It calls for weapons that have high survivability, high precision, and low cost, in addition to force mobility and command and control system redundancy.

Adopting a clear strategy

Taiwan must decide on a strategy to determine what kind of troops, equipment, and weapons are needed, Lee said. Only then can the military set a strategic goal and train soldiers accordingly, he said.

Lee said Taiwan’s current military training overall was severely outdated and a vestige of WWII-era concepts. The conventional way of fighting is gone and will never come back, he said.

When he was still on active duty, the concept was embraced by the Taiwan government and military, Lee said. However, after he retired, implementation efforts were abandoned — until the war in Ukraine in 2022.

Only then did the government and defense authorities begin considering the importance of ODC, Lee said.

Slow progress

The ex-military official acknowledged that Taiwan has changed course in how it plans to defend against a possible Chinese attack but said its joint command and control communications are still vulnerable. “I’m not so optimistic for Taiwan’s joint defense capabilities,” he said.

Though Taiwan has purchased Harpoon missiles and HIMARS systems to boost its coastal and air defenses in recent years, it continues to build conventional platforms such as light frigates and submarines.

Lee urged the military to transition to distributed, mobile command posts that are more survivable. As long as a good percentage of Taiwan’s C4ISR capabilities endure an initial missile strike by China, Beijing will not be able to successfully conduct amphibious landings, he said.

Citing renowned boxer Muhammed Ali’s famous quote, he said Taiwan should adopt the philosophy of “float like a butterfly, sting like a bee.”

When asked about the strategic importance of traditional arms such as F-16 fighter jets and M1A2 Abrams tanks, Lee said they still have certain value, particularly when responding to China’s gray zone tactics.

Nevertheless, it would be hard for them to survive during war, and he added that the military was spending too much money on conventional platforms. “We should just concentrate on resource allocation,” he said.

Quality of training

As Taiwan prepares to conduct the 40th Han Kuang exercise this summer, Lee said the two-part wargame could be a “meaningful” part of Taiwan’s defense preparations but only depending on how it is carried out.

For the computer simulation portion, he urged officials to “be honest and more realistic” about what kind of scenarios and caps were input into the system.

Concerning the live-fire portion, Lee said it should use more realistic data and simulate combat situations for the troops. Scenarios should also be more non-scripted and focus on free play, he added.

“Don’t be afraid of failure, because we would rather fail in an exercise than in a real war,” he said.

This year’s computer simulations have been extended to eight days and will focus on defense capabilities, joint decision-making, and planning behavior by different levels of the military structure. Analysts have said the live-fire segment will test Taiwan’s ability to protect its critical infrastructure and communications systems, simulate enemy attacks on rear detachments, and combat misinformation to ensure normal command system operations amid chaos.

When asked about U.S. military cooperation, Lee said he hoped to see more American instructors bring their innovative thinking to Taiwan’s Armed Forces. “The more the better,” he said.

Chinese threat

Concerning when China could potentially launch an invasion of Taiwan, Lee pointed to statements from U.S. officials, who have said 2027 would be the year the People’s Liberation Army would likely have full invasion capabilities.

However, China currently has insufficient amphibious lift and lacks joint operations experience, including weapons, tactics, doctrine, logistics, and equipment, Lee said. Even after gaining the ability, Beijing would still have to conduct massive air bombardments and missile strikes to neutralize Taiwan’s military assets, installations, and command posts.

He pointed out that Chinese forces would also have difficulty gaining a foothold on Taiwan’s coast, as there are not many beaches suitable for landings. Additionally, if Beijing decided to send in soldiers from the air, Taiwan could counter with mobile air defense systems, he said.

Another challenge China would have to consider is establishing a strong joint logistics supply after it was able to get troops on the ground.

For now, Lee said he believed it would not be easy for the PLA to conduct a full-scale invasion because Taiwan would “certainly have a strategic warning, intelligence if they gather their troops, mobilize their fighter jets or navy ships.”

What is immediately concerning are China’s gray zone tactics, Lee said. They aim to wear down Taiwan’s conventional platforms, gather intelligence on response time, methods, and equipment, as well as strengthen its own command and control and battlefield management abilities.

The former admiral recommended responding to these tactics by sending UAVs or other small lethal vessels to save on resource costs. “We don’t always have to pursue one-on-one countermeasures to deal with grey zone aggressions,” he said.

Will to fight

Lee said that Taiwan would undoubtedly need foreign assistance in the event of a war with China. However, it needed to first demonstrate the will to defend itself and its ability to maintain a credible defense.

“Nobody will help those who are not intending to defend themselves,” Lee said. If other countries perceive Taiwan as militarily weak and unlikely to put up a good fight against China, then they will not jump to its aid, he said.

Lee urged the creation of a “territorial defense force” consisting of volunteer civilians. This would be the most accurate way to measure the will to fight, in addition to adding complications to Beijing’s war plan.

Lee explained that one could not judge people’s will to fight based on their stance on China. “Just because someone is anti-China does not mean they will be willing to defend Taiwan,” he said.

But before such a force is established, Lee said Taiwan has not yet heeded either of these principles.

The Kuma Academy was initially started to build a civil defense, but the problem is Taiwan’s laws prohibit people from being armed, Lee said. Thus, it shifted to emergency and disaster response training. He stressed that a true territorial defense would need to be a top-down initiative.

As to whether the U.S. and Japan would intervene in a Taiwan contingency, Lee said their support would be nice, but Taiwan cannot assume they would come to help.

Long road ahead

Lee said that despite publishing a book and giving numerous interviews pushing for ODC, he failed to change the organizational culture and political-military dynamics in Taiwan’s Armed Forces. Nevertheless, his passion for enhancing Taiwan’s defense capabilities continues to burn and stems from his love for Taiwan and his 42 years of military service.

Lee said he hoped Taiwan could learn these lessons of asymmetric warfare on its own before China made it learn the hard way.