TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Admiral Samuel Paparo, President Biden's nominee to helm U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, warned that China could soon have the capability to use military exercises to conceal an invasion of Taiwan.
On Feb. 14, Paparo spoke at a conference organized by the Defense Innovation Unit in Silicon Valley to discuss ways in which the private sector can collaborate with the U.S. military in leveraging emerging commercial technologies to strengthen America's defenses. Paparo touched on the growing threat by the People's Liberation Army (PLA) and ways that the U.S. could use new technologies to deter Beijing.
Paparo said that despite news that China is facing economic and demographic woes, as well as corruption scandals within the PLA, he warned that Beijing's leadership is "undaunted in their ambitions." He said these ambitions include the world, West Pacific, South China Sea, and "more acutely for Taiwan."
According to Paparo, within the past three years, the PLA has achieved "step-level changes" in its force levels and the "jointness" of those forces. He said that these developments along with PLA rehearsals demonstrating joint capabilities and the heightened threshold of warnings indicate that China will soon reach a point at which it will have sufficient forces to launch a "profound military operation" that can be operated "under a fig leaf of exercise."
At the same time, Paparo said that the "erosion of strategic operational and tactical warning is real" and presents a challenge to the ability of the U.S. and its allies to detect warning signs of a Chinese attack. He said that this could hinder the ability of the U.S. military to be properly positioned to support allies and partners and affect its readiness to defend Taiwan if China should "decide to settle matters with the use of force."
Paparo said that there have been important developments in terms of enhanced defense cooperation between the U.S. and Japan, South Korea, AUKUS members, and the Philippines. He said that there have been new bilateral, trilateral, and multilateral agreements among U.S. partners demonstrating a "growing confluence of international will" in response to China's aggressive actions.
When asked what would be necessary to deter Chinese leader Xi Jinping (習近平) from deciding to invade Taiwan, Paparo said that the U.S. must make it clear that any attempt to do so would be unsuccessful and demonstrate the capability to impose "generational impacts." Paparo pointed out that the U.S. submarine force is about a generation to half a generation ahead of China.
Paparo recommended that China can be deterred from attacking Taiwan by deploying assets with an "unmanned autonomous capability" to maintain vigilance over the region and "deny the Taiwan Strait as an avenue of invasion." He also called for a reassessment of "information superiority, air superiority, and maritime superiority."
