TAIPEI (Taiwan News) —U.S. think tanks have weighed in on the DPP’s historic third term as the ruling party and the outcome of legislative races, predicting several internal challenges as well as a possible reaction from Beijing.
The Washington think tank, Atlantic Council, surveyed seven academics familiar with Taiwan’s political and economic situation with China and the U.S. Opinions ranged from more of the status quo to increased military and economic coercion, per UDN.
Australian National University political scientist Sung Wen-ti (宋文笛) believes criticism of the incoming Lai administration is likely from Beijing in the short term, with continual attacks from both civil and military groups to intimidate Taiwan. Economic sanctions on Taiwan's export products as well as "grey zone" military tactics, will be used to set conditions for subsequent interactions between Beijing and the new DPP government.
Sung said the DPP must effectively cooperate with opposition parties in the legislature. If the DPP can overcome internal divisions, it will be able to negotiate more effectively with Beijing and have the opportunity to restart communication channels, allowing for more regional stability.
Atlantic Council's senior resident China fellow Kenton Thibaut said Beijing billed the election as a vote between “war and peace” to coerce Taiwanese voters to support the KMT candidate. He said other tactics like economic coercion and escalating cross-strait tension were likewise used in a failed attempt to impact the election.
With the election over, Thibaut said there are no signs Beijing will let up. He said what will follow is “strategic deployment of the narrative that DPP and U.S. actions are destabilizing the Asia-Pacific region and leading to conflict."
Atlantic Council CEO Frederick Kempe said the biggest problem facing China’s Xi Jinping (習近平) is not Taiwan, but "the failure of China's domestic authoritarian system." Kempe said Xi could adopt a more tolerant attitude toward Taiwan's elections if China’s domestic conditions improve. However, he also worried that Xi may use talk of unification as a distraction from protracted domestic issues involving China’s population of 1.4 billion.
Atlantic Council senior researcher Jeremy Mark believed recent election results effectively represent the maintaining of the status quo in the Taiwan Strait. This could mean the next four years may be characterized by no new negotiations between Taiwan and China. Mark said China's slowing economy means it is unlikely to resort to economic pressure as it continues to rely on the import of Taiwanese semiconductors and other electronic products.
Atlantic Council non-resident senior fellow Hinata-Yamaguchi Ryo said Lai Ching-te's (賴清德) victory is of great significance to cross-strait relations and regional security, also reflecting the complexity of Taiwan's politics. With the DPP winning a third consecutive term of office, Lai was able to demonstrate an ability to overcome challenges encountered early in the campaign such as Chinese interference and the emergence of a viable third party (Taiwan People's Party).
He said Lai’s victory ensures that the DPP is still the first choice amongst Taiwanese voters, though it was not given an overwhelming mandate from the public, and it will still face pressure in a divided legislature, making future governance dependent upon an ability to strategically adjust policies.
Atlantic Council non-resident senior fellow Hung Tran believes the election indicates Taiwanese “cherish their de facto independence and freedom” and hope for an easing of tension with China.
However, depending on policy statements made by the president-elect between now and when he assumes office in May, China may initiate provocative steps such as more military coercion and a potential maritime blockade of Taiwan. With Taiwan playing an important role in international trade, this could add yet another “headwind” to the global economy.
Stanford University’s Hoover Institution research fellow Kharis Templeman spoke with CNA, noting Beijing’s future actions were currently unclear, potentially allowing more time for the incoming Lai administration to show sincerity in cross-strait talks. He believes Lai will face more difficulties than his predecessors, as Taiwan will need more support from international partners to counter Chinese aggression.
Templeman said losing the majority in the legislature by the DPP will be an opportunity for Beijing to utilize past methods such as "carrots and sticks” to deal with Taiwan, though he does not expect this to affect major changes in policy for the DPP.
