TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Center for Preventive Action Director Paul B. Stares said on Wednesday (Jan. 10) that the situation in the South China Sea has been tense, and he worries that events near the region may fuel tension in the Taiwan Strait.
Stares said at a seminar that an outbreak in the Taiwan Strait would profoundly affect the global state of affairs, per CNA. Although Stares is optimistic that the U.S. and China have worked to improve relations, he expressed concern that there are still chances for things to go wrong, such as the balloon incident in February 2023.
He cited the recent tensions in the South China Sea as an example, saying, “I have been concerned that incidents in other parts of the region may spread, exacerbating tensions in the Taiwan Strait." "We have not paid enough attention to this horizontal escalation," he added.
Stares suggested that to prevent the escalation of tensions in the Taiwan Strait, the “accelerator must not be released,” and there is a need for “upstream prevention.” He welcomed improving military communication between the U.S. and China and building a “fence” to prevent conflicts, but emphasized that true risk reduction can only be achieved if both sides establish mutual trust.
The CFR listed Taiwan as a “Tier I” danger in its annual Preventive Priorities Survey. The report invited policy experts to evaluate ongoing or potential conflicts and how likely they are to escalate or break out the following year.