TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — The U.S. think tank Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) said in its latest report that a "severe cross-strait crisis" is at the highest tier level among potential conflicts in the world for the fourth year in a row.

On Thursday (Jan. 4), the CFR released its 2024 edition of the Preventive Priorities Survey. Since 2008, the CFR's foreign policy experts have evaluated 30 ongoing or potential violent conflicts around the world and divided them into three tiers according to the probability of occurrence in the next year and the degree of impact on U.S. interests.

The report noted that last year the world saw "violent conflict erupt or grow worse in many regions." It said there is a "growing risk of armed conflict" between the U.S. and China due to roiling tensions over the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea.

According to the findings of experts surveyed by the CFR's Center for Preventive Action in November, eight scenarios were included in the Tier 1 contingencies with a high-to-moderate probability of occurrence and a high impact on U.S. interests. At the top of this list is burgeoning political polarization in the U.S. 

A serious situation involving Taiwan was rated as "moderate" in terms of likelihood among the Tier 1 contingencies, but its impact was rated as "high." In this scenario "intensified economic and military pressure" exerted by China on Taiwan, particularly around the Taiwanese presidential election, could trigger a "severe cross-strait crisis" involving the U.S. and other countries in the region.

As the rivalry between the U.S. and China has intensified in recent years, the two sides were included in the report for the first time in 2019 due to tensions over Taiwan, with the situation being classified as a Tier 2 contingency that year and in 2020. However, in 2021, the situation was upgraded to Tier 1, and this year marks the fourth consecutive year that a severe cross-strait crisis has been listed as Tier 1.