TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — In the latest My Formosa poll, Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate Lai Ching-te's (賴清德) lead over Kuomintang (KMT) candidate Hou Yu-ih (侯友宜) has risen to nearly 10 percentage points.
In the poll released Tuesday (Dec. 26), the DPP ticket of Lai and Hsiao Bi-khim (蕭美琴) has risen to 38.9%, while the KMT's Hou and Jaw Shaw-kong (趙少康) are trailing at 29.4%, a difference of 9.5 percentage points, the largest gap between the two candidates seen in recent polls. The Taiwan People's Party's (TPP) ticket of Ko Wen-je (柯文哲) and Cynthia Wu (吳欣盈) remained in third place at 17.2%.
Compared to the previous poll, support for Lai has increased by 1.5 percentage points, while backing for Hou fell by 3.2 percentage points, dipping below 30% for the first time. Meanwhile, support for Ko rose slightly by 0.9 percentage points.
In terms of party affiliation, 87.5% of those who identify with the KMT support Hou, while 96% of those who lean toward the DPP back Lai. Of those who favor the TPP, 87.6% support Ko.
In addition, among the pan-blue supporters, 60.6% back Hou, while among pan-green supporters, 69.7% favor Lai. For those who identify as neutral or do not consider party affiliation, 27.3% support Lai, 21.3% back Hou, and 13.5% favor Ko.
In terms of regions, Lai has the lead in New Taipei City, Taichung, Changhua, Nantou, Yunlin, Chiayi, Tainan, Kaohsiung, Pingtung, Keelung, Yilan, Hualien, Taitung, Penghu, Kinmen, and Matsu. Hou leads in Taipei, Taoyuan, Hsinchu, and Miaoli.
However, in New Taipei, where Hou is the mayor, Lai has the lead at 38%, surpassing Hou's 31.5%. Support for Hou in the city has decreased by 2.4% since the previous survey.
In central western Taiwan (Changhua, Nantou, and Taichung), Lai's support rate is 32.3%, surpassing Hou's support rate of 25.2%. In the previous survey, Hou had a support rate of 29.4%.
In terms of age groups, Lai has the lead among those aged 20-29 (34.8%), 30-39 (31%), 40-49 (38.4%), 60-69 (48.4%), and over 70 (45.2%). However, Hou leads in the 50-59 age group with 37.2%.
There has been a significant shift in the young voter demographic. Previously, most of those aged 20-29 and 30-39 favored Ko, but now they have turned to support Lai.
When asked whether the president should be from a different party for the "better development of the country in the next four years," 36.1% believe the DPP should remain in power, 26.9% want to see the KMT take over, and only 14.1% believe the TPP should be in charge.
The survey for the 95th round of polling was conducted on Dec. 21, 22, and 25 in Taiwan's 22 counties and cities. This latest survey interviewed 1,349 adults, 20 years old and over, with a confidence level of 95% and a maximum sampling error of plus or minus 2.7%.