TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — The economy will grow by 3.02% next year and suffer a limited impact from China’s decision to end preferential tariffs for some imports from Taiwan, the Academia Sinica said Friday (Dec. 22).
In a move widely interpreted as an attempt to interfere with the Jan. 13 elections, Beijing announced Wednesday (Dec. 20) it was ending the preferential tariffs for 12 petrochemical products from Taiwan beginning Jan. 1.
The lower rates were the result of the Cross-Strait Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) concluded between the two countries in 2010.
The Academia Sinica’s Institute of Economics said it saw 2024 as a year with “melting snow, a warm spring, and occasional cold winds,” per CNA. Exports of goods and services were likely to rise by 6.23% due to strong demand for new technology and consumer electronics.
For 2023 however, the institute cut its gross domestic product (GDP) forecast by 0.22% from July to 1.34%. The main reason was lower demand for Taiwan’s exports in overseas markets and the resulting slow working away of inventories, economists said.
Most think tanks recently cut their 2023 GDP forecasts to levels just above 3%. The exception was Cathay Financial, which estimated Taiwan’s economy only grew by 2.8% during the year.