TAICHUNG (Taiwan News) — Up until late November there was a lot of talk of Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate Lai Ching-te (賴清德) winning the upcoming 2024 presidential election “lying down,” but no one thinks that now.
The Kuomintang (KMT) and their candidate Hou Yu-ih’s (侯友宜) camp pivoted to their base by nominating 2020 KMT presidential candidate Han Kuo-yu (韓國瑜) to head up their legislative party list and presumed candidate for legislative speaker and then picked media personality and Broadcasting Corporation of China Chair Jaw Shaw-kong (趙少康) as their vice presidential candidate. Both are controversial figures, but both have strong followings in the pan-blue camp.
Almost overnight in the Taiwan News Poll of Polls (TNPoP), Hou jumped roughly nine points, positioning him in second place and leaving Taiwan People's Party (TPP) candidate Ko Wen-je (柯文哲) in the dust in third place. The reason was simple, the pan-blue base consolidated around Hou, with his support among self-identified KMT supporters jumping from roughly two-thirds to around 90% in a flash.
As things stand right now it looks like more of a battle by the pan-greens and pan-blues to consolidate their bases and battle it out to poach Ko supporters and the remaining undecided voters.
Of the seven polls currently being tracked for the upcoming TNPoP release on Dec. 20, all are broadly in agreement with Lai in first, Hou second, and Ko pulling up the rear.
Six of the polls have Lai leading Hou by 3.1% to 5.2%, with five in the 3.1% to 4.2% range. All but one of the polls has Ko’s support at around 20% plus or minus one or two points.
Lai’s bump
Most of the polls also have Lai rising and hitting new highs. If this is the case then there are two likely causes for this.
One could be the addition of former representative to the U.S., Hsiao Bi-khim (蕭美琴), to the ticket as the DPP’s vice presidential pick. She is widely respected and a draw with younger voters, with even former President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) speaking highly of her capabilities as a formidable opponent to his own KMT.
The other is that pan-green voters may have grown alarmed at the sharp deep-blue shift in the KMT with the introduction of Jaw and the possibility of Han becoming legislative speaker. Widespread fear and dislike of Han among pan-green voters and many independents drove them to a record turnout in the 2020 national elections to re-elect the DPP in a landslide victory.
Though there is some controversy in Hou Yu-ih’s past, in general, he previously did not inspire fear or alarm, and appealed to many light-green voters and independents in his two runs for New Taipei City mayor. Now he is taking deep blue stances that while excellent for consolidating his base, may be helping to consolidate Lai’s as well.
There is one wrinkle in this picture, however. While most polls continue to show Lai’s support rising, the well-respected outlet Formosa is showing a different picture than the others.
Formosa polling showed Lai’s support spike in late November, then recently has been sliding back down into roughly the same band he had been polling in since August. This suggests my theories are wrong, or at least did not stick. The poll of polls was created to cut out noise and volatility from individual polls, but it does bear watching whether other polls start showing similar results.
Ko campaign left scrambling
The Ko camp has been alarmed by the turn in polls and that Hou is now the clear challenger to Lai. They are deeply concerned about the “dump/save effect” (棄保效應) of his supporters, seeing him sinking in the polls, may strategically switch their votes to one of the other candidates with a better shot at winning.
Some have attributed Ko’s slumping poll numbers to his erratic behavior during the opposition unity ticket negotiations. That might be true, or be a factor, but it is also possible that “dump/save” may already be happening.
The Ko campaign has been taking two approaches to handling this. One is to try and counter all the “dump/save” talk by releasing internal polling that shows Ko is in second place and has not lost any support at all.
Since no independent poll shows that, no one is buying it. Even CNews, the one polling outfit that had Hou only leading Ko by the margin of error since late November, now shows Hou with a widening lead over Ko.
The other approach has been to try and expand their support into demographics they have failed to reach so far, or have lost. These attempts have so far failed, and have come across as a bit bizarre.
For example, after spending much of the year working to cooperate with the KMT and continuing to do so in some legislative races, as well as talking up dialogue with China, Ko abruptly stated “at heart in essence I am deep green.” Nobody was buying this, either, and he has since appeared in public with an ROC flag pin like KMT politicians sport, and compared himself to one-party state-era leader Chiang Ching-kuo (蔣經國), possibly to mend fences for that comment.
Then at a rally, he called on his supporters to help him implement a “55 plan” to reach out to older voters. Formosa polling shows Ko’s support is almost entirely under 50, with only 11% supporting him in the 50-59 demographic, 3.8% support with the 60-69 set, and 1.6% support among those over 70. One could probably find higher polling support for being poked with a sharp stick.
The “55 plan” involves his supporters committing to spending five minutes a day, five days a week explaining to their elders why they should vote for Ko. Someone forgot to tell Ko that in traditional Taiwanese society, it is the elders who believe they have the right to tell the young how to vote, not the other way around, so the effect will be limited at best.
Does Ko have a chance at this point?
It is a long shot, but theoretically possible. A lot can happen between now and election day on Jan. 13. He has been written off multiple times in the past and has managed to bounce back.
He has the steepest hill to climb to win, however.
