TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — In contrast to government predictions, economists at Cathay Financial Holdings see Taiwan’s gross domestic product (GDP) failing to achieve 3% growth in 2024, reports said Wednesday (Dec. 13).

The Cabinet’s Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS) last month raised its forecast for 2024 to 3.35% from 3.32%. The Central Bank estimated GDP growth next year at 3.08%.

However, Cathay Financial cut its forecast to 2.8% Wednesday from 2.9%, while also reducing its 2023 prediction to 1.2% from 1.3%, per CNA. Experts working together at the financial group and at National Taiwan University (NTU) said lower-than-expected growth for the United States and Chinese economies next year had affected their estimates.

Data showing that the import of capital equipment into Taiwan is still slowing down formed another factor in favor of caution about 2024, Cathay Financial said.