TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Formosa announced its latest nationwide poll results on Monday (Oct. 31) for the presidential election early next year with frontrunner Lai Ching-te (賴清德) of the DPP dropping by 10% in his lead over the second-place candidate, per TVBS.
Lai continues to lead the other three major competitors, sitting at 33.7% (-6.3%), followed by KMT candidate Hou Yu-Ih at 24.6% (+2.2%), and TPP candidate Ko Wen-je at 23.9% (+2.3%), with 5.9% choosing not to cast a vote (+0.4%), and another 11.9% being undecided or not answering clearly (+1.5%).
A trend observed was that support for Lai among those aged 20–29 with high school education has declined by more than 10% compared to a month earlier. By comparison, those aged 60 to 69 who identify as pan-green continue to support Lai, and his lead amongst this group is more than 10%.
Should Foxconn founder Terry Gou (郭台銘) join the presidential election, making it a four-way race, the poll found that the DPP’s Lai received 32.5% (-4.8%), KMT’s Hou Yu-ih (侯友宜) 21.9% (+2.2%), TPP’s Ko Wen-je (柯文哲) 20.4% (+3.5%), independent candidate Terry Gou 5.3% (-2.1%), those who won’t vote 4.8% (+0.1%), and undecided or unclear 15.1% (+1.1%).
Should Gou enter the race, the poll found the impact would be significant, with TPP Ko Wen-je's support reducing by 3.5%, KMT Hou Yu-ih's support reducing by 2.7%, and DPP‘s Lai support falling by 1.2%.
Poll characteristics
- Poll commissioning group: Formosa website
- Polling organization: Beacon Marketing & Research conducted telephone interviews
- Poll scope: 22 counties and cities across Taiwan
- Poll target: citizens over 20 years old
- Poll period: Oct. 24–25
- Poll methodology: Computer-Assisted Telephone Interviewing (CATI) conducted by interviewers
- Poll design: The survey sample was based on a computer database from Chunghwa Telecom's residential telephone directory. Proportionate stratified random sampling makes use of "random-digit-dial (RDD)"
- Poll size: 1,070 people were interviewed, with a sampling error of ±3.0% and 95% reliability
- Poll weighting: "Raking ratio estimation" method with regular to gender, household registration, and age data