TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Kuomintang (KMT) presidential candidate Hou Yu-ih (侯友宜) and Taiwan People’s Party candidate Ko Wen-je (柯文哲) continue to keep Taiwan guessing about a joint presidential run, but what are the chances the pair will collaborate, and why would they choose to?
During a panel discussion on Oct. 16, International Policy Advisory Group Director Stephen Tan (譚耀南) said he thinks collaboration is likely. However, Tan said there are three interested parties that have to agree on collaboration, and it will be decided by who chooses to “yield” first.
Tan said from Ko’s perspective, no matter the outcome of the negotiations, Ko has “set the tempo” through various demands about polling and debates. He has little to lose if negotiations do not work out.
“If he runs and he loses, post elections (Ko) will be the most influential third party (politician) in the Legislative Yuan and beyond,” Tan said. If Ko comes out of negotiations on top, Ko will take Hou as his vice, and contest the election, he said.
In addition to running for president, Hou is also the current mayor of New Taipei City. Tan said he could not see a reason Hou would not choose to run on a joint ticket with Ko, as in the worst case it meant going back to being mayor, and in the best case removing the DPP from government.
Tan said the third party that needs to “yield” in the negotiations is KMT Chair Eric Chu (朱立倫). “It’s even clear to me that from (Chu’s) perspective, the only way (the KMT) can possibly win is to make sure that both candidates consolidate into a joint ticket," he said.
Tan added, “Then (Chu) himself will have a role post-election. He knows that Ko can not run the whole government by himself singlehandedly, and will have to rely on the KMT, so Eric Chu may have a big role after the election."
Tan said he believes that the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and its candidate Lai Ching-te (賴清德) are “running under the assumption that the opposition parties will eventually consolidate.”
Eric Chu speaks to the media on Wednesday. (CNA photo)
Tan said that by looking at Chu, Hou, and Ko together, there are enough incentives to collaborate, but the issue is: “Who is going to give in first?”
Instead of internal forces, assistant professor of political science at Soochow University Fang-Yu Chen (陳方隅) said he thinks China may be the “omitted factor” that encourages the opposition parties to run on a single ticket. “If they have a single ticket, it is maybe the only way they can defeat the DPP,” Chen said.
Chen said that Ko is a “typical populist politician,” the likes of which are seen "all over the world." “He is highly flexible on everything,” he said.
Independent candidate Terry Gou (郭台銘) has not received as much attention regarding possible collaboration with other parties as Ko and Hou. Gou is also polling significantly behind other candidates.
On Gou’s current polling numbers, Tan said the question is “when will he drop out, and how?” Tan said in dropping out he has the option of saying he will support a unified opposition ticket, or claim that it was done in the interest of not splitting the opposition vote.
Chen said that he thinks Gou is driven by a “sense of mission,” and is running because he has a lot of money and a lot of time. “After Tsai Ing-wen took power, the ‘ill-gotten assets’ legislation froze a lot of the KMT’s assets, so the KMT was not powerful enough to persuade people like Gou to unite under the central authority,” Chen said.
Terry Gou on the campaign trail. (CNA photo)