TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Taiwan’s support for maintaining the status quo in cross-Strait relations has reached a record high and support for independence is falling, according to a new poll.
Global Views released the poll on Thursday (Oct. 12) and also found that Taiwanese people do not think that their country’s relationship with the U.S. is based on a sincere desire to protect them, while most young people are unwilling to fight in a war between China and Taiwan.
Taiwanese people’s views on such issues have changed in response to global and local events, including the election of President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) and the visit of then U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in August 2022. Heading into another presidential election in January 2024, people’s views on certain issues are clearly divided down party lines.
Cross-Strait relations
Just under 60% of Taiwanese people support the maintenance of the status quo, according to the poll. About 32% said they support it and would reassess later, and over 27% said they support it in perpetuity.
Meanwhile just over 25% said they support Taiwan independence, a number that has steadily fallen since then U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in August 2022. Support for unification with China was at 8.5%, up from 4.5% at the election of current President Tsai.
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Party affiliation was a strong indicator of opinion on cross-Strait relations, with over 46% of pan-green (i.e., Democratic Progressive Party, DPP) supporters saying they support Taiwan independence. Only 7.5% of pan-blue (i.e., Kuomintang, KMT) supporters said the same.
Dialogue and war
The poll also showed most Taiwanese people want more interaction with China, even more so than last year. However, a majority of people (64.6%) said they do not think a war will break out between China and Taiwan over the next five years.
If China were to invade Taiwan, more than half said they would not be willing to go to war themselves, or for their families to go to war. Young people showed the highest resistance to fight.
The group that showed the greatest willingness to fight was 60-69-year-olds, though roughly equal numbers said they would not be willing.
Party affiliation also sharply divided respondent’s perception of the current government’s preparedness for war. Nearly two-thirds of pan-blue supporters said they do not think Taiwan is ready, and similar numbers of Taiwan People’s Party supporters said the same.
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In contrast, over 80% of pan-green supporters said they do think the government is prepared. Young people also produced a notable result in this area, with nearly half saying the government is not prepared for war.
In terms of personal preparedness, nearly half of respondents said they were “completely unprepared for war,” though about a quarter said they had reserved some food. About a fifth had considered sheltering options, and about 10% were considering emigrating, and increasing their holdings of gold and U.S. dollars.
Meanwhile, over 41% said they believe the results of Taiwan’s next presidential election will affect the likelihood of maintaining peace or going to war. Despite that, most people said the main reason for cross-Strait tensions is that China will not abandon the goal of unification.
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Relationship with the U.S.
The poll also showed that Taiwanese believe their country’s relationship with the U.S. is not based on a sincere desire to protect them. The number of people who thought that the U.S.-Taiwan relationship was a tool for the U.S. to suppress China was more than 70% across the college-educated, the middle-aged, and pan-blue supporters.
Those who thought the U.S. used Taiwan to suppress China peaked among TPP supporters, of which over 95% said they thought this way. Young people again showed a clear opinion on this issue, with more than 81% saying they viewed the relationship this way.
DPP supporters were the outlier in this category, with over 34% saying they believe the Taiwan-U.S. relationship is based on the U.S.’s sincere desire to protect Taiwan. However, over 46% said they believe it is to suppress China.
A majority of people said they want harmonious relations between Taiwan, China, and the U.S. Under 5% said they support a pro-China and anti-U.S. stance, and around 14% said they support a pro-U.S. and anti-China stance.
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