TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — The edges of Typhoon Koinu's (小犬) storm circle began to impact eastern Taiwan on Wednesday morning (Oct. 4) and the Central Weather Bureau (CWB) predicts the eye of the storm will make landfall in southern Taiwan on Thursday (Oct. 5).
As of 9:15 a.m., Typhoon Koinu was located 270 km east of Eluanbi and was moving west at a speed of 11 kph, according to the CWB. It had a radius of 250 km and was packing maximum sustained winds of 154 kph with gusts of up to 190 kph.
WeatherRisk meteorologist Peng Chi-ming (彭啟明) on his Facebook page said that Koinu is making a 90-degree turn as expected. Peng added the edges of the typhoon's storm circle made landfall in the eastern half of Taiwan at 8 a.m. on Wednesday morning.
CWB map of Typhoon Koinu's projected path. (CWB image)
According to the CWB's latest model for the typhoon's impact, there is a 100% probability that it will make landfall in Taitung County, including Orchid Island and Green Island. Chiayi County and City, as well as Tainan City, Kaohsiung City, and Pingtung County, have a probability of over 90%.
Yunlin County, Nantou County, Hualien County, and Penghu County have probabilities exceeding 80%. Therefore, Peng concluded the likelihood of these regions having a typhoon holiday on Thursday is quite high.
Peng said that Typhoon Koinu is beginning its expected 90-degree turn towards the west. The extent of Koinu's north-south oscillation is being closely monitored, as this will also affect the exact location of its landfall.
Peng Chi-ming's forecast for Koinu's future path. (Facebook, Peng Chi-ming image)
The forecaster said the eastern half of the country and Pingtung County should be prepared for heavy rainfall and strong wind gusts as Koinu's storm circle envelopes those areas on Wednesday. On Thursday, Peng predicted that all of Taiwan will experience intensified weather conditions from the typhoon.
The CWB predicts the eye of the storm will make landfall at the border of Taitung and Pingtung County's Hengchun Peninsula in the early hours of Thursday morning. As Koinu travels overland, it is expected to weaken in intensity before it enters the Taiwan Strait on Friday (Oct. 6).
Currently, a land warning is in place for Nantou County, Chiayi County, Chiayi City, Yilan County, Pingtung County, Changhua County, Hsinchu County, Hsinchu City, Taichung City, Tainan City, Taitung County, Hualien County, Miaoli County, Yunlin County, and Kaohsiung City.
JTWC map of Koinu's predicted trajectory. (JTWC image)
A sea warning is in effect for the Bashi Channel, Dongsha Islands, offshore areas of northeast Taiwan, offshore areas of southeast Taiwan, the north Taiwan Strait, and the south Taiwan Strait.
Peng said the land warning for Koinu will probably not be lifted until Friday, while the sea warning will probably stay in place until Saturday (Oct. 7). He advised the public to be prepared for an extended period of dealing with the typhoon's effects.
According to the latest forecast from the CWB, the probability of the typhoon making landfall in Taitung County, including Orchid Island, and Green Island is 100%, Hengchun Peninsula 99%, Kaohsiung County and Pingtung County 98%, Tainan City 96%, Chiayi City 92%, Chiayi County 91%, Hualien County 88%, Yunlin County 87%, Nantou County 83%, and Penghu County 81%.
Radar image of Typhoon Koinu. (Facebook, Peng Chi-ming image)
