TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — The Central Weather Bureau (CWB) predicts that Typhoon Koinu (小犬) will have the greatest impact on Taiwan from Wednesday through Friday (Oct. 4-6), with all major international meteorological bureaus predicting that the typhoon will make landfall in southern Taiwan between Wednesday evening and Thursday morning (Oct. 5).
As of 8 a.m., Typhoon Koinu was located 460 km east-southeast of Eluanbi, moving northwest and turning west at a speed of 11 kph, according to the CWB. It had a radius of 250 km and was packing maximum sustained winds of 162 kph, with gusts of up to 198 kph.
CWB meteorologist Wu Wan-hua (伍婉華) at a Tuesday press conference said that Koinu intensified again in the early morning and the storm's radius expanded from 220 km to 250 km. Wu predicted that Koinu's storm circle will begin to affect Tawian's southeastern coastal waters on Tuesday evening and will affect southeastern coastal areas by Wednesday morning.
CWB map showing the forecasted path of Koinu. (CW image)
Wu forecasted that from Wednesday to Friday, Koinu would have the most significant impact on Taiwan, possibly passing through the southern tip of Taiwan or the Bashi Channel. The CWB's latest map predicted Koinu would make landfall on the Hengchun Peninsula at some point between Wednesday evening and Thursday morning.
As the periphery of the typhoon approaches on Tuesday, Wu predicted that there will be brief showers in northern and northeastern Taiwan, with a possibility of localized heavy rain in the northeastern mountainous areas.
JMA map of Koinu's projected trajectory. (JMA image)
Wu said that localized showers are likely in Hualien and Taitung counties, while central and southern Taiwan will remain relatively stable, with partly cloudy to sunny skies. However, she said that sporadic showers are possible in mountainous areas of southern Taiwan in the afternoon.
In addition, Wu said that wind and waves are gradually increasing in the waters near Taiwan. According to Wu, coastal areas from Taoyuan City to Tainan County, as well as Orchid Island, Green Island, and Penghu County, can expect strong wind gusts reaching 9 to 11 on the Beaufort scale, while Kinmen County, Lienchiang County, and coastal regions will experience stronger gusts.
ECMWF ensemble model of Koinu's projected path. (Weathernerds.org image)
The eastern half of Taiwan, including Orchid Island and Green Island, and the coastal areas of the Hengchun Peninsula can expect waves exceeding four meters in height, said Wu. There is also a risk of large waves on Keelung's northern coastline, the eastern half of Taiwan, including Orchid Island and Green Island, the Hengchun Peninsula, and Lienchiang County. Wu urged the public to avoid any seaside activities.
The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) estimated that the typhoon will be in Pingtung County by Thursday morning, with the eye of the storm on a path to move just south of Kaohsiung City. The Japan Meteorological Association (JMA) predicted that Koinu will make landfall in Taitung County on Thursday morning, passing across Pingtung County and Kaohsiung City, before heading into the Taiwan Strait on Friday.
Satellite image of Typhoon Koinu. (NOAA GIF)
The average path of the European ensemble model showed the typhoon moving across Taitung, Pingtung, and Kaohsiung, before entering the Taiwan Strait and heading towards China's Hainan Island. The average path of the U.S. ensemble model predicted Koinu would move across the southern tip of Taiwan before entering the Taiwan Strait, turning to the southwest and making landfall in central Vietnam.