TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense released the latest results of an August public opinion poll on Monday (Sept. 18), revealing that 45% of respondents believed that national defense capabilities have improved, marking an all-time high, reported CNA.

Lee Kuan-chen (李冠成), assistant researcher at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research, authored an analysis titled "Polls Indicate That the National Military's Counteractions in Psychological Warfare Against the CCP Are Effective." Lee said that in light of the Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) past intentions in psychological warfare to undermine the national military and cause public disruption, the timing of the survey was after the CCP's military exercises.

Thus, the trend could be analyzed through several time points to observe the impact of the CCP's psychological warfare on public opinion. Lee said that in the first wave of polling in September 2021, approximately 44% believed that Taiwan's military capabilities had become stronger.

In February 2022, as the Russo-Ukrainian War broke out, the CCP launched a "Today Ukraine, Tomorrow Taiwan" psychological warfare offensive, according to Lee. Consequently, the second wave of polling in March 2022 found that the proportion of people who believed that military capabilities had improved dropped to 33%.

In August 2022, the polling indicated a 10% increase in those who believed that national military capabilities improved. In March 2023, the proportion once again dropped to 31%.

However, in the latest poll in August 2023, the proportion had increased by approximately 14%, reaching 45%, the highest ever recorded. The proportion of respondents who believed that national military capabilities had not improved stood at 32%, representing the lowest among all previous surveys.

Regarding the skepticism that "U.S. military assistance to Taiwan will lead to war," approximately 57% of respondents in the August poll disagreed, either somewhat or strongly. This indicated that a majority of the public has not been swayed by the CCP's influence and does not harbor doubts about the U.S., Lee said.

Since February 2023, several controversies and psychological warfare messages defaming Taiwan's national military have surfaced, according to Lee. For example, Nikkei reported in February that 90% of retired Taiwanese military officers had provided intelligence to China.

In March, a soldier stationed in Kinmen, Taiwan swam to Xiamen, China, which stirred up negative information about the Taiwan military. Subsequently, Lee said a lack of confidence in the national military was observed for the first time, where 43% of respondents expressed confidence and 51% expressed a lack of confidence.

During the CCP's August military exercises, the CCP once again spread false information about deserters in Kinmen. However, the national military was prepared this time, immediately clarifying the situation and countering the CCP's "Mazu" propaganda, Lee said.

He said these countermeasures, along with the release of footage monitoring CCP ships and aircraft, helped restore public confidence in the military's ability to defend Taiwan. In the August poll, over 50% of respondents expressed confidence in the military's capabilities.

The Election Study Center of National Chengchi University (NCCU) was commissioned to conduct this survey via telephone on Aug. 23-27. It targeted adults aged 20 and above in Taiwan’s main island and Penghu.

A total of 1,089 samples were collected and weighted using the "raking" method based on gender, age, education level, and place of residence. The sample was found to be sufficient to represent the entire population.